Not making any predictions here, though I do lean towards Russia getting their asses kicked out of Crimea. I just thought this was a very interesting article from someone who has clearly paid a lot of attention to the war in general and seems to think he has a fair amount of strategic insight.
I’ve wondered now for over a year; with the losses of young Russians, fighting a war that makes no sense and is against a population that is intermingled with themselves, why Putin hasn’t been assassinated from within?
We didn’t really see the indications of a winter offensive. More likely the Russians have spent their time digging in to use the advantage of the prepared defense. They proved a year ago that they are not an all season, day/night army. Reports have them setting up a 3 band defense in depth as much as 40 miles in some places. Defensive posture also allows the Russian Air Force to become more involved in the battle. Targeting advancing combat formations with 1.5 ton standoff cluster bombs from 20 miles behind the front is a lot easier than trying to fly into enemy territory. It also means that Ukrainian strike aircraft will have to fly into range of the Russian S300 and S400 systems to support any attacks. Russian SU35s can also lurk out of Ukrainian ADA coverage and target any Ukrainian attack aircraft trying to support an offensive.
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The Big Bad Bear. Oh, those hillbillies and their “assault” rifles. 
Because he is exceedingly paranoid and takes extreme precautions, I don’t think it’s any more than that. I mean…you have to quarantine for two weeks just to get a meeting with him.
Always interesting to read your take on military matters.
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I have never seen an official announcement of a “winter offensive” from Russia.
I have seen plenty of speculation about a Russian winter offensive in western media. The fact that Russians have not met western expectations is interpreted as a Russian defeat and not the result of faulty western analysis.
In reality, the stated Russian objective has been to destroy the Ukrainian army, not taking territory.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group that is helping lead the fight for Bakhmut, said his troops have primarily centred their efforts on demolishing the Ukrainian army there . . .
“Our task is not Bakhmut itself, but the destruction of the Ukrainian army and the reduction of its combat potential, which has an extremely positive effect on other areas, which is why this operation was dubbed the 'Bakhmut meat grinder.'”
War of attrition: Russia's stubborn fight for Ukraine's Bakhmut
Here is a description of Russian tactics, which agrees with observations from the battlefront.
https://twitter.com/GonzaloLira1968/status/1647182922259001344/photo/1
The thrust of the article was really a spring counteroffensive from Ukraine and whether or not it can succeed.
There will most likely be some kind of Ukrainian offensive; Washington demands that as a condition for support. It may become a “summer offensive” given the delays and problems on the Ukrainian side.
The most likely outcome of an offensive would be an increase in Ukrainian losses that they can’t replace, which will hasten the end of the war on Russian terms.
The wild card would be if NATO nations launch a full-scale intervention in Ukraine as part of the Ukrainian offensive. US special forces are already fighting in Ukraine. According to Polish media, several thousand Polish troops are already fighting as part of a foreign legion.
Escalating further is likely to provoke WW3. Everyone may lose if the war goes nuclear, but I see no way that the US can win.
I assume by now those leaked pentagon papers that were dumped are real. If so they say lines will change little in 2023 aka forever war.
Come on Bill, the only reason they are seeking the destruction of the Ukrainian Army is to allow them to advance deeper into Ukraine. This isn’t a defensive ar for the Russians. They are just planning to use a prepared defense to have Ukraine expend it’s forces under conditions more favorable to the Russians.
yes we did. it failed. as you have from the beginning you overestimate the russians and underestimate the ukranians. this penchant causes you to see a failed attack as one that didn’t happen.
The Russians attempted to push south from lyman pershy toward kupiansk and failed
The Russians attempted to take Bakhmut and failed
The Russians attempted to moe west from kremmina toward lyman and failed
The Russians attempted to take bilorhivka and failed
all of those were directed toward taking siversk, which they never got close to so they could move on to the big prizes of sloviansk and kramatorsk
The Russians attempted to take avdivka and failed
The Russians attempted to take Maryinka and failed
The Russians attempted to take Vulhedar and failed
The russians attempted to take valysa novokilke and failed
These attacks were directed toward taking western donetsk, and moving toward dnipro, which they will never come close to
The Russians attempted to take orikhiv and failed
The russians attempted to take kamianske and failed
This was directed toward Zaporhizia, which they haven’t seen yet
You are of course free to hold that assessment, but there were nothing more than probing attacks everywhere except Bakhmut. What we have seen is several months of defensive preparations.
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That is patently false. The attacks on adivka and vulhedar especially were not probing attacks. The russians lost 130 tanks and armored vehicles in vulhedar in about a month through 3 successive miserably failed attacks and dozens more in avdivka
and i’m not even touching on kremmina where they have more than 40k troops and have achieved zero of their objectives
Still nothing but probing attacks, which forced Ukraine to expend combat power. Russia has learned a lot about their limitations in the last year. Combat is always the most effective teacher. Other than Bahkmut, they are going to let the Ukrainians throw themselves against prepared defenses in depth. The big Ukrainian counter attack hit the Russians when they were disorganized and had not consolidated along prepared defenses. That isn’t going to be the case this time.
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They’re going to take Crimea?
How?
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We can speculate about the motives of the Russian government. I prefer to start with official statements from the Russian government rather than mind-reading exercises from western “experts”. Here is Putin’s stated purpose of the Special Military Operation from February 2022:
"Its purpose is to protect the people who have for eight years been exposed to humiliation and genocide by the regime in Kiev. For this we will seek demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. . .
Putin declares beginning of military operation in Ukraine - Russian Politics & Diplomacy - TASS
The Russians defeated Azov in Mariupol last summer. The war of attrition is destroying the Ukrainian army and has seriously depleted the stocks of ammunition for Ukraine and its NATO allies. It would appear that Putin is well underway to meeting the stated objectives of “demilitarization and denazification”.
Ukrainian forces are still hitting civilians in Donetsk, so the objective of protecting the population of Donetsk has not been met.
https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-donetsk-shelling-idAFKBN2VU15X
Putin’s statement may imply that Russia will continue to advance until the end the threat from Ukrainian artillery is removed or a cease fire is reached.
Just stop Bill, wars are fought to seize resources on one side and to prevent their seizure on the other. The destruction of your opponent’s armed forces is the means to determine which side wins, not the motivation for the conflict.
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Because Russia is armed with â– â– â– â– â– â– â– parading around in uniforms?
Wars are also fought to prevent threats to a homeland.
The US attempted to invaded Cuba in 1961 and was ready to invade in 1962 during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
A US invasion was to remove the threat from the Soviet military. It was not about the controlling the cane fields of Cuba.
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