Very doubtful. They have to win 7 of 9 of the tossups and not lose a single other seat. By definition tossups should be a close to a 50-50 proposition.
Ya in general I agree- but the polls have been moving towards Dems quite a bit in most all these races. I feel pretty confident that the Dems will get W. Virginia, Missouri, Indiana, Montana and Nevada. I am less certain about Arizona and Tennessee- but that would get them to 7. It would then be pretty tough to pick off one of the other three- North Dakota, Florida or Texas.
So yeah- very likely they won’t pull it off- but I won’t discount it anymore.
According to 538, the Democrats only have about a 30% chance of retaking the Senate. I think that the Democrats will lose the Senate seats from FL and ND, and that they will gain the Senate seats from NV and AZ. Arizona here that is turning purple and according to 538, Sinema has about a 68% chance of winning.
Yes, because many more R seats are in play, and in purple states. I really think there is going to be a backlash from conservatives over the BK nomination though, and if I’m right nearly all of the red state Dems could be defeated.
As you know there are still some states where Trump is popular. Regardless of whether or not NK is confirmed, I expect Trump to hammer Dems with it in his rallies.
But Rs will need to win quite a few seats this November because they will almost certainly lose some next cycle.
It will be interesting…there may a little backlash about the judge but I don’t it will be as much as you think…also the the toxicity of Trump may more than people think…after all ha has done nothing to gain ANY supporters and some have certainly peeled away.
I personally believe a LOT of Democratic voters stayed home because they believed Clinton was going to win anyway and they were kind of ‘meh’ about her…this will not happen with this man in office.