Why Donald Trump will win 2020

Wasnt hillary projected to win 2016

Interested (hoping) to see if itā€™s Sanders he is running against.

Actually, fundraising is a major concern for Republicans.

And the Democratic presidential field is really beating Trump.

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The polls had her winning by 3% voter margin. She won the popular vote by 2%. So the polls were pretty accurate.

Actually the polls gave her a six in seven chance of winning, the polls never would express an absolute certainty that one or another candidate would win. Trump won on one in seven odds, long shot, but it happens. The polls were not in error, but they are frequently treated as statements of fact rather than statements of probability.

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In that case I dare say that does not bode well for your side. Independents do NOT like the extremist positions Democrat candidates have taken. And like it or not, be honest enough to 'fess up that they are extreme.

Socialism? Seriously?
Benefits for illegal aliens? Really?
Transgenderism?
Sanders trillion dollar healthcare insanity?
Promising - yes promising - to do away with all the energy jobs Trump created?

Sorry, but independents are not going for all that.

Whats trasgenderism

Sorry but that is fake news. Yes, I have seen the articles that say as much, but they are not true. From CNN to FOX, the articles are legion about the record-breaking fundraising happening with the GOP.

What do tech geniuses have to do with the outcome of the election? I am not sure what your point is here? Could you explain?

Everyone give Trump a golf clap for stats worse than Obama!

Oh, and it has been about 6.5 million jobs (In the period before Trump entered office, over 8 million jobs were created in the same length of time) and unemployment from 4.7 to 3.5 percent (a 25.5% reduction compared to Obamaā€™s 39% reduction and thatā€™s not even counting the peak of unemployment from the great recession).

The S&P500 has had annualized returns of 12.9% compared to Obamaā€™s 13.8%.

Only half of households own any stock and the top 10% own 81% of equities [1].

  1. https://www.nber.org/papers/w20733.pdf
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Have you heard about the miracles Brad Parscale pulled of with micro-targetting? He may have single-handedly pulled off Trumps election.

These numbers are weaker than you conclude. Polls show Trump gets very high marks on economic performance, but those donā€™t translate into comparably high support for his Presidency. The reasons for that are an interesting matter of debate.

Unemployment is low under Donald Trump and the Stock Market tis high. Nevertheless a a majority of Americans tell pollsters that they are not benefiting from these economic results and a rapidly growing number are saying th economy is rigged to only benefit those at the top. Trump has to counter these trends.

Republicans made no effort to run on the 2017 Tax Cut in 2018 and with good reason. It is largely seen as a boondoggle for the rich. Trump sold the cut on two promises: businesses would use their tax cuts to expand investment (more jobs) and raise wages. Neither goal was realized. Investment and wages have been largely flat under Trump. Instead, most companies plowed the tax cut into stock buybacks ā€“ raising the market, but that only benefits a limited group of Americans. It is hard to imagine the tax cut will be a good issue for Republicans in 2020 given what happened in 2018.

For a long time the candidates on both sides rally their base by going to the extreme left or right in the primaries. And then when the final candidates are chosen they scamper back to the middle for the general. It has been that way since I got interested in politics back in the 1960ā€™s. And you Trump supporters should not get hung up that voters are only being swayed by issues. There are a whole bunch of folks that consider Trump to be a embarrassment to the office and our nation. That he has proven that he is not qualified to do the job. Those folks are going to vote on emotion. And I believe that there are a fair number of them.

I took him down to just above even after the impeachment/trial. I have seen polls that show independents turning on him. But yes agreed that Biden and Sanders both are problematic in their own way and the Dow remains high which buoys optimism.

Not for the Houseā€¦

Plus is the reality that for a whole bunch of folks, their tax break will do a 180 degree turnaround in 2024 and they will be paying through the nose. That realization of what Trump and the Republicans did will come back to bite them. Another example how the Republicans at times have a very short term mentally when it comes to what they pass on the hill.

And if you run the numbers the combined take by all of the Democrat Candidates exceeds what the GOP is bringing in. The reality of the success of fund raising will only be realized after Trump and whoever is running against him is a done deal.

Now why do you suppose that is? Think about this:

People know the real numbers and give him high marks. They give him high marks on the FACTS.

But the top benefiting? System rigged? They have no factual, real or personal experience with that stuff. This is stuff the have HEARD, not experienced.

I tell you that fake news is battling with real facts, and we see that in the weird, seemingly inconsistent views of the voters. The economy and unemployment numbers are FACTS. Cries of rigging and racism and the rest are PROPAGANDA.

The rich have always been rich. Nobody cared before. hy now? Its because of the class warfare incited by some. Americans have traditionally WANTED to be right. They are fascinated by the rich. They love to watch tv shows about the rich.

I think that facts will win out in the end.

Again, fake news, not facts. And swamp rat hack Republican RINOā€™s live for polls and public opinion and fear of the media. Trump has showed us that it need not be so.

Whatā€™s fake about this news? Democrats outraising Republicans? The Democratic presidential candidates outraising Trump?

Yes and yes.