Why Donald Trump will win 2020

I am sure that Trump will be re-elected because I have seen many articles from VERY different sources, that all focus on different aspects of the election process and use different models, yet all come to the same conclusion. I consider that variety of methods coming to a single conclusion to be very weighty.

Lets start with this article from The Hill. The Hill offers a very wide range of opinion, which is nice. This article contains some seriously great accomplishments of Trump.

Some takeways:

  • Since Trump took office, more than 7 million new jobs have been created. Unemployment has fallen from 4.8 percent to 3.5 percent, with African American and Hispanic unemployment at historic lows. In sharp contrast to the Obama era, the labor force has been growing rather than shrinking. More Americans are now working than ever before…

  • Given that no president running for reelection in the postwar era has been defeated with unemployment at less than 7.4 percent, the record of Trump on the jobs front alone sets him as a formidable candidate for reelection…

  • Moreover, Trump signed into law the Tax Cut and Jobs Act two years ago. Though Democrats derided it as a sop to the wealthy, a study showed that an average family of four earning the median annual income of $73,000 received a cut in federal income taxes of more than $2,000…

  • Since Trump was elected, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has soared by more than 50 percent to more than 28,000 points. The S&P 500 has climbed by more than 50 percent to more than 3,200 points. The Nasdaq composite has risen by more than 70 percent to more than 8,800 points. If you think those gains go only to elites, think again, as about 100 million people have 401(k)s and 42 million households have individual retirement accounts. They know who is putting more money in their wallets and who is making it easier to save for retirement and pay for college for their kids…

Honestly, no one would expect anything different from a Jenny Beth op-ed.

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His chances (at present) are better than average in my estimation.

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A month ago I wold have said he has a 60 percent chance of winning re-election. Now I would say just above even odds. Thats my completely scientific estimation.

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Honestly I’ll take that as gospel just as much as anything RealPolitics or anyone else puts out.

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That’s not a refutation. But it is a willful ignoring of the facts contained in the article.

It is also an ignoring of my commentary which has yet to be backed up with more articles. As I said: "I have seen many articles from VERY different sources, that all focus on different aspects of the election process and use different models, yet all come to the same conclusion. I consider that variety of methods coming to a single conclusion to be very weighty.

I’d say thats a fair assessment

At this point, I can say with absolute certainty that either Trump will win the presidency or someone else will win the presidency.

Anyone who tries to make any more specific predictions than that with absolute certainty at this point is just blowing smoke.

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That’s a bold assertion sir!

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I aim to please! :rofl::rofl:

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The OP is new and might not realize that posting a opinion piece by a political pundit will be questioned.

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I might actually agree with you if that article were my only source. But once again, as I said: " I have seen many articles from VY different sources, that all focus on different aspects of the election process and use different models, yet all come to the same conclusion. I consider that variety of methods coming to a single conclusion to be very weighty.

To that end lets look at this article. Three different models were used that all came to the same conclusion.

Bloomberg - Economics
Trump’s Re-Election Likely If Economy Stays on Course

Also:

I will say that the odds are not in favor of him winning re-election if the Democrats turn out at the same levels as they did when Obama was elected. If that happens the numbers quickly stack up against him.
And the notion that many demographics have shifted to being pro-Trump are just wrong. Film at eleven.

Please re-read my OP commentary.

Economic models don’t win elections. Turnout wins elections. Just look at the 2018 elections. If that Democrat and left leaning Independents turn out in those numbers or better, Trump is toast.

i’m still at the 60-40 range, I don’t have confidence in Biden, Warren, Sanders. I thought Harris was the best dem candidate but her campaign tanked.

Also I predict things poorly.

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Some other day I MIGHT agree with that, but not today. Turnout will be YUGE on both sides so they will cancel each other out. Now the models and tech geniuses on both sides matter more than ever.

Trumps guy is a genius. He is highly credited wit rumps 2016 win.

Can I get the over/under on that?

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Okay. I talked accomplishments, I talked models, next comes MONEY. By all accounts the GOP and Trump fundraising machines have blown the roofs off of all records. Impeachment has actually helped fundraising Trump a lot. And Trump rallies, scoffed a by the Left, are an enormous source of money and signing up new voters.

Not really. If you consider that there are 27% of Democrat voters and 27% of Republican voters (Gallup data) then it is a wash as long as the majority of those voters vote party line. However as will all elections now the kicker is how the 45% of Independents vote. And yes I know it is early. But there are already indications that he has lost ground with that demographic.