What One Florida County Could Tell Us About a "Gray Revolt" on Election Night

Interring.

I think you really nail Trump’s biggest personality weakness. He just can’t ever shut up. Can’t ever just say - “sorry, I didn’t express myself clearly…” He gets defensive. And rightly, or wrongly, by defending what people THOUGHT he said or meant, it starts to sound like THAT IS EXACTLY what he said or meant…the ‘fine people’ is a perfect example.

But he’s a stubborn narcissist. I know people with his same personality IRL and they are exactly the same - the good and the bad. Fun to be around, great story tellers, great ballsy attitudes, but just like trump, can never admit they are wrong, can never apologize, can never allow criticism.

(This is a tangent I realize…) And I guess my own life experience really makes the trump thing, for me, a real head scratcher. Knowing people IRL who are so eerily like trump, and knowing that while I would gladly have a drink with them, I would NEVER trust them with anything important…and really, how the hell can anyone support a guy who said all those things about McCain, and the Shah family, and…well, so many others…and given that we know he never apologizes, we’re left to believe those words are what is in his heart.

It’s hard for me to understand that. And the ■■■■■ grabbing stuff…

But tangental personal feelings aside, I’m not sure I agree with the idea that Trump was a lock pre-Covid. A lot of people were disillusioned with him, personally and in terms of policy. And honestly, I think it’s safe to say for a whole host of reasons, Clinton was the perfect candidate for him to beat. I agree pre covid trump had a better chance, but I don’t think he was a lock.

So, Trump Fatigue on one side, Economy on the other, but I think disappointed trump supporters is another block. And this of course is nothing new. The curse of the incumbent is, they have a record to defend.

I also think because our nation is so diverse, it’s possible that the whole country doesn’t tip one way or the other. IOW, FLA could be a bit Biden sweep because the olds don’t care for Trump’s caviler attitude toward COVID, but maybe PA sweeps big for trump because fracking…

I obviously hope biden crushes him, but I realize that might be a pipe dream. He’s a really bad president. The easiest proof of this lately is his promise to release a health care plan in two weeks eight weeks ago…■■■? And of course mocking his very own pandemic advisor, seemingly because Faucci is more popular than him. That’s ■■■■■■ up ■■■■ that would sink any other political. Rightfully so.

We’ll see soon enough I suppose.

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Sure looks like “gray revolt” going on.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1319720967183224834

There was a pro-Biden one there that was just as long a couple of weeks ago.

So?

My point was “gray revolt” may not be what it seems.

I count less than a dozen in that one.

It likely means exactly what the article says it meant.

The article isn’t saying Biden will win that county…but if he does really well there it could be a bellwether.

It continues on in the background.

Not sure what you are seeing.

https://www.newsbreak.com/florida/the-villages/news/2045293113039/watch-the-villages-retirement-community-holds-golf-cart-parade-for-joe-biden

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.WW, PSHS

It is really irrelevant that Trump might have more golf carts than Biden. It is undisputed that Trump will carry Sumter County.

The ONLY thing at issue is the margin.

I have listed 5 elections below, 2016 Presidential, 2018 Senatorial, 2018 Gubernatorial, 2012 Presidential and 2008 Presidential. In 2008 and 2012, Obama was able to able to eat a couple of extra points into the senior vote, which made all the difference. In 2016 and 2018, Republicans held a very strong margin on that vote, critical in securing their victories.

But even a couple of points lost among seniors could be fatal for Trump.

Trump will likely win the golf cart wars. He may not win them by enough.

2016 election:

Presidential
Candidate Vice Presidential
Candidate Political
Party Popular Vote
Donald J. Trump Michael R. Pence Republican 52,730 68.27%
Hillary Clinton Timothy Kaine Democratic 22,638 29.31%
Gary Johnson William F. Weld Libertarian FL 971 1.26%
Write-ins - - 573 0.74%
Dr. Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka Green 201 0.26%
Y Other (+) - - 125 0.16%

2018 Senatorial:

Senatorial
Candidate Political Party Popular Vote
Rick Scott Republican 52,868 70.92%
Bill Nelson Democratic 21,678 29.08%
Y Other (+) - 3 0.00%

2018 Gubernatorial:

Gubernatorial
Candidate Lt. Gubernatorial
Candidate Political
Party Popular Vote
Ron DeSantis Jeanette Nunez Republican 51,798 69.62%
Andrew Gillum Chris King Democratic 21,843 29.36%
Darcy G. Richardson Nancy Argenziano Reform 391 0.53%
Y Other (+) - - 364 0.49%

2012 Presidential:

Presidential
Candidate Vice Presidential
Candidate Political
Party Popular Vote
Willard Mitt Romney Paul Ryan Republican FL 40,646 67.13%
Barack H. Obama Joseph R. Biden, Jr. FL Democratic 19,524 32.25%
Gary Johnson James P. Gray Libertarian FL 162 0.27%
Y Other (+) - - 214 0.35%

2008 Presidential:

Presidential
Candidate Vice Presidential
Candidate Political
Party Popular Vote
John S. McCain, III Sarah Palin Republican FL 30,866 63.01%
Barack H. Obama Joseph R. Biden, Jr. FL Democratic 17,655 36.04%
Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez Ecology FL 195 0.40%
Y Other (+) - - 267 0.55%

Interesting tidbit. 2016 was record high early voting before now.

He’s got a health care plan.
https://trumpcovidplan.com/

This is precisely what I was saying

Trump will win the county but if Biden can crack 30-35% then Trump could lose the state.

It is awesome this domain name was free.

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