What One Florida County Could Tell Us About a "Gray Revolt" on Election Night

Interesting article at Cook Political.

Sumter County could give very early election night clue as to how Florida might turn.

It is undisputed that Trump will carry Sumter County. But the percentage by which he carries it will be critical. At a minimum, he must carry Sumter by a margin of 2 to 1, something he accomplished in 2016 and something Rick Scott accomplished in 2018. It he carries Sumter 67 to 33 or more, he has a chance to carry Florida. On the other hand, if he carries Sumter by a margin of 60 to 40, most likely he is doomed in Florida and nationwide.

Sumter typically is very speedy in reporting its results and we could have substantially complete results from Sumter by 8:00 pm to 9:00 pm EST.

Sumter is home to most of The Villages and all this turns on a potential “gray” revolt.

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kind of discounting Trump’s much improved Hispanic support

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Trump is not going to win Duval and Pinellas counties in Florida again. If Trump is going to win Florida again, he needs to not lose Miami-Dade County by more than 25%.

Trump has approved with Hispanic support a bit in Florida, but not really in other states, such as Arizona. With Biden now up by about 4 points in Arizona, Trump is likely going to lose this state this year.

All evidence at the moment points to Trump having lost more senior support than he has gained Hispanic support.

Why do you think he’s starting to include pleas to seniors and trying to act sympathetic towards them (before losing impulse control and going back on his rants) in his more recent rallies?

He’s been trying to coddle up to seniors and is begging suburban women to vote for him.

Why do you think that is?

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Seniors love TRUMP/PENCE in 2020!

Goooooo America!!!


Your partly right.

There will likely be a massive landslide.

Just not the one you intended.


I saw a post from a gal a few days ago who lives in Sun City Florida. She and her husband took a tour around and counted yard signs. And she said that there were a lot more Biden signs out. And she called a friend who lives in the Villages who did the same survey and had the same results. When Trump dissed Seniors regarding the virus I really was a obvious bad move. Seniors don’t want to be thought of as dispensable. And they sure as hell want a POTUS who will not mess with Medicare. And they are the surest voting block in America.

I hope you are right. I want it so lopsided that Trump has to shut up and walk away with his tail between his legs. The only depressing news is that in some states including Florida the Republicans have had a much better signup for new voters. But as I keep saying, if Democrat voters turn out in 2008 numbers, Trump is toast.

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The Villages voter registration is like two to one republicans over democrats.

Trump just ruins the best intentions of pollsters.

Trump will do better with minorities, women, and anyone who has a sense of justice over the CV19 shutdowns.

It is clear Trump has more public support than he did in 2016.

The election will be tight tight tight all the way.

Trump may not win…He will never shut up, give up on his policies, or put his tail between his legs.

Trump Presidential legacy is solid.

You are right, he will never shut up. He’ll spend a year on his “Victim” tour.

The Dems want to provide SS benefits to illegals and rebrand the “Medicare for all” into some kind of protracted social medicine experiment.
Even the senior enclaves of Florida know it and despite the disdain for Trump ginned up in the last 4 years, they know which side of the bagel gets the cream cheese.

Throwing seniors under the COVID bus was not a smart idea in an election year.

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Provide benefits to front line workers in pandemic response who are illegals, not blanket benefits to all illegals.

The ones putting their lives at risk to help Americans.

I’ve read that but don’t know the details. Is it something he said like that “it is what it is” brew ha ha? Or something he did similar to Mario Cuomo’s death sentences of seniors in NY nursing facilities by returning Covid infected residents back.

i see a slant either way depending on the news cycle the last 48 hours. I believe either Trump or Biden will sweep all of the toss up states, and whichever does will produce some “shockers” in other supposedly safe states.

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Did some goo-gling
Interesting read. No mention of “front line workers” though

It was a report I heard on NPR. A little further digging and I see that Biden’s proposal would provide financial assistance to Dreamers and says nothing more on the subject. Did you find something more concrete in current Congressional works?