It would take about 20 republicans to cross over…at least according to what I read somewhere last week. I don’t see that happening.
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I can see some positives for Republicans if Pence were the President going into the election. I could actually vote for Pence, and I suspect a lot of other former Republicans could as well. He doesn’t have the huge negatives that Trump has, so he would appeal to a wider percentage of the electorate - people like myself who would never vote for Trump.
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Agreed. It’s a pipe dream to expect that many to grow a spine. 
There are currently 46 democrats, so it would be a massive shift. It would be as if these 20 republicans would have, RIGHT UP UNTIL THE VOTE, been giving their support to Trump, and then at the 11th hour, said nope, we don’t support him, never have, just been playing politics with leadership. We 20 vote to convict.
It would truly be amazing if 20 shifted their allegiances. It would be amazing if 5 did. Would it not.
Given 67 is almost impossible, would a 51-49 vote in favour of guilty be significant insofar as it would be a majority guilty vote?
Most bigly so.
I would sooner expect to win the lottery. And I don’t play.
This thread sure seemed to confuse a lot of people.
Te OP did not ask about trump being convicted by 2/3 and removed from office.
That isnt going to happen.
They made it clear he is talking about if The senate voted to impeach with more then 50 senators. What would be the effect politically?
I think the effect would be nothing in a normal world. In fact -I think a majority of people wouldn’t think more then “Not enough votes to convict” BUT - What would happen is Trump would go a on Twitter rampage talking about how unfair it is, how it was a perfect phone call, and this was treason. Making him look AGAIN like a idiot and bringing it to the attention of everyone.
Personally I’d be gobsmacked if that happened. The GOP is utterly castrated by Trumpism at present.
More than 50% of the vote? Nothing politically except having a list with x number of Rs voting for removal. I mean, Trump could have 66 and 34 against and he’s not be removed.
Its like at the end of the Rams/Titans Superbowl. Titans almost scored a TD to tie the score, but it just didn’t happen.
I certainly wouldn’t be putting my last 5 dollars on it happening. However, I think if it did happen the one group where it might have an impact is with independent voters. The other possible group that might be influenced by such a guilty verdict would be the 18-29 age demographic.
This was why my previous post talked about McConnell releasing some members to vote for impeachment but still well below the threshold needed for conviction.
If the metric is “save his job” he releases some to vote to convict and hopefully have a better shot a reelection and therefore him retaining the Majority Leader job. I.E. self interest.
If the metric is “save Trump” then he does everything he can do to keep the GOP vote at 100% for acquittal. A strategy that may very well cost the GOP the Senate with some losses in battleground states.
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If he saves his job and throws Trump under the bus then that takes away the Trump supporters talking point that it wasn’t bipartisan (even though polls clear show bipartisan support for impeachment). If some GOP Senators vote for conviction then the process becomes bipartisan.
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.WW, PHS
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A notoriously difficult group (in the US anyway) to get to the ballot box. If a yone is capable of motivating them, it’s Donald.
Interesting machinations I hadn’t considered.
I don’t think that any of the GOP Senators will vote to convict Trump except for maybe Romney.
I saw a recent poll where his approval rating dropped 18%. I wouldn’t hang my hat on his defecting either.
I disagree.
I wouldn’t put it past McConnell in his coordinating acquittal with the White House to have proposed the idea to Trump that it actually works to his advantage to have a couple of Senators released to vote to acquit.
When Trump wins reelection - as McConnell will point out - ensuring he’s working with a majority GOP Senate will be MUCH better than him as a lame duck President with a DEM Senate and DEM House. With a GOP Senate he can still at least get Judges confirmed.
Better to release a few Senators, win reelection, and have a GOP Senate. (With of course McConnell in charge wink-wink).
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.WW, PHS
I think Collins will vote to convict. If she doesnt, her loses this year.
Romney prob as well.
@Blackwolf @WorldWatcher I thought I would combine my response to both of your posts. We don’t have a problem in Australia getting voters out for our elections as we have, in essence, compulsory voting and that is why we get turnouts of 90+% generally. So I appreciate that it is different in the USA. I would argue that 2020 would be different than 2016 in turns of turnout because those opposing Trump saw in 2016 the consequences if people don’t turn out to vote.
With respect to McConnell allowing some Republicans a chance to vote guilty in the Senate. This could be a two edged sword as you mentioned it would serve as a counterpoint to the Republican argument that it was a witch hunt and totally partisan. It would be hard to argue that case to independents when a majority in the Senate voted that he was guilty.
Collins and Murkowski will both likely vote to convict.
Manchin and Jones might vote to acquit.
So it could be a wash.
Because…the fix is in?
