It looks like similar things are going on in the UK as well.
George Galloway of the Workers Party easily won a byelection in England that had been held by Labour. Galloway’s opposition to Labour’s unconditional support for the Israeli invasion of Gaza was a big factor in a district that is 30% Muslim.
That’s true… but the abortion/IVF issue has been a steady source of energy for progressive candidates.
The protest vote in Michigan should have the Democrats worried.
But the chaos within the Michigan Republican Party should have the Republicans worried in an election where get-out-the-vote efforts are likely to be decisive (given two unpopular candidates).
I have no idea who should be more worried.
The polls do show Trump with a lead in Michigan. Remember though, polls have consistently overestimated Republican strength since 2021. Polls were big part of the red wave in 2022. And in the election to replace George Santos a week back, Suozzi’s win was no surprise, but where the polls had him at a 3-4% lead, he won buy 8%.
I wonder what is causing this consistent Republican polling bias?
I’d say polls may have a rightward drift, yes.
However, mustn’t assume that this is necessarily true with this race.
F.e. 2020 MI polling was pretty well on the money especially if you ignore the conservative Trafalgar Group polls
And to expand on that a bit, looking at MI polls from 2020 around this time of the year:
Final outcome was Biden by slightly less than three.
Wait till RFK is on the ballot in which he almost is in Michigan. He just cleared Arizona and Georgia.
Yeah.
I would have thought RFK would help Biden but he’s helping Trump.
You failed to mention that labour did not field a candidate because earlier in February they withdrew support for Azhar Ali and did not have time to field a replacement candidate.
But Galloway should not get too comfortable in parliament as There will be a general election later this year in which I expect Galloway will be easily defeated as labour will have a candidate in play.
You fail to mention that Labour dropped their own candidate because of issues related to his opposition to the war in Gaza.
Azhar Ali was selected as the Labour Party candidate, on 27 January 2024. He is a Lancashire county councillor and was, at the time of his selection, the leader of the Labour group on the council. He was also a candidate for the Westminster seat of Pendle in 2015 and 2019.[27] He was selected from a shortlist of three, including Westminster lobby journalist Paul Waugh, and Nazia Rehman, a member of Wigan Metropolitan Borough Council and cabinet member.[28] During the campaign, Ali came under fire over the content of a recording obtained by the Daily Mail, in which he suggested at a meeting that Israel allowed the 7 October attacks to go ahead, in order to “green light” action in Gaza. Upon the recording being made public, Ali retracted his comments and apologised.[29] Following information about other comments made by Ali,[30] Labour withdrew its support on 12 February, and the party announced it would no longer devote resources to his campaign.[31][32] Prior to the withdrawal, Ali had received abuse for Labour’s position on Israel, despite his own support for Palestine.
2024 Rochdale by-election - Wikipedia
The byelection is just the tip of the iceberg. Polls show that the vast majority of UK voters want a ceasefire in Gaza and only 24% believe that the Gaza war is justified.
No it was his comments reiterating the conspiracy theory that Israel allowed the attack to happen not his opposition to Israels ongoing military operations that caused Labour to withdraw support.
Just a guess, but more people wanting Trump than Biden perhaps?
RFK is still a Dem, no matter how “moderate” he looks.
Practically nobody who would have voted for Trump would switch to any Dem.
He’s talking about Republicans underperforming in elections compared to polling. Which has been true in a few cases.
Exactly. This has been occurring frequently since 2021.
Okay. That’s probably due to a combination of faulty poling and voting booth revelations.
Personally, I quit participating in polls because the questions were often phrased to extract answers that only fit into two categories that boiled down to “yes” or “no.”
They will love their Chinese electric cars.
To follow up, NY Times/Siena was one of the pollsters that was consistently reliable during 2022 election season - f.e. it called Fetterman over Oz close to the election date when many other pollsters were predicting Oz, same with Walker/Warnock race in GA.
It’s also ranked as the #1 pollster on 538.
Latest NY Times/Siena has Trump winning by four nationally over Biden.
This is obviously not a great sign for Mr. Biden’s campaign especially considering Republican baked-in EC advantage. If accurate, that’s a lot of ground to make up for Democrats.
IMHO the 8% Don’t Know/Refused might be a big factor. I think that this will be more of a turnout race then 2020. And as long as Trump keeps up with his public “the government will be what I want it to be” speak, I have no doubt that the folks will turn out to shut him down.
Even if 100% of those 8% would turn out for Biden (obviously improbable), Trump could still win via Electoral College.
But they wouldn’t - I suspect a chunk of that vote would go to RFK Jr. , Drs. Cornel West and Jill Stein and whoever the 2024 Libertarian Party candidate will be. Some would go to Biden, some to Trump.
But - still eight months to go, so lots can change such as Mr. Trump being convicted of a crime.
I agree. The amount of votes a third party candidate could take is still a big wild card. And I certainly agree that it is still way too early to have a clear picture.
