WAR in Ukraine, Putin approves initiation of special military operation (Part 2)

Of course, any source that dares dispute your anti-American agenda is “propaganda,” and the tripe you post daily is gospel. :joy:

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If true, this is a very telling indicator of the combat readiness of Ukrainian front line units.

Cooks and drivers fill frontline gaps amid troop shortage - military expert

Trying to cover a combat frontage with </= 40% of assigned manning is a recipe for failure in the defense.

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The anti-American propaganda is the tripe that you have been lapping up from the neocon war mongers. They have wasted trillions of taxpayer dollars in useless overseas wars that have killed thousands of American service personnel and millions of people in the target countries.

They are more than happy to risk nuclear annihilation for Americans in order to further their stock portfolios and career paths.

They have spread lies and misinformation in order to justify the wars. Lies about an “unprovoked invasion” join Kuwaiti incubators, WMDs, etc. as pretexts for war. Only years later to we find out the truth.

Since 2014, Putin has replaced Milošević, Gaddafi, Hussein, Assad, etc. as the current “Snidely Whiplash” villain in the cartoon melodramas used to whip up support for war.

Any effort at diplomacy to avoid war would be “appeasement” according to neocons.

The real question is when will we stop appeasing the neocon war mongers who are destroying America for fun and profit?

Yes, your post is a good summation of false Russian propaganda and reinforces ISW’s point. Russia can’t win a war against NATO, so their military tactics and logistics don’t really matter. Russia’s real war effort is trying to convince NATO to stop supporting Ukraine, and you’re in lockstep with that effort.

Yes, you provide a good summary of neocon propaganda.

According to neocons, killing hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and wasting hundreds of billions of dollars from American taxpayers is the “best money we ever spent” so long as we also kill some Russians in the process. Neocons love lose-lose-lose solutions since arms merchants and corrupt officials are the only real winners.

Pro-American solutions that result in a diplomatic settlement instead of endless wars are dismissed as Russian propaganda since they would end the gravy train.

The reality is that anyone who is actually familiar with the conditions on the front line recognizes that a Ukrainian/NATO victory is a fantasy at this point. An eventual Ukrainian collapse is inevitable unless there is a negotiated settlement.

It’s weird that all of your “pro-American” solutions are the same solutions that Putin favors. Really weird!

Of course the picture looks grim when Ukraine isn’t getting the supplies they need to defend themselves. The Kremlin propaganda campaign is working.

Ronald Reagan would be considered a Kremlin pawn by today’s standards since he negotiated arms control agreements and security arrangements with Moscow. They benefited the American people and the Russian people.

The reason why Ukraine is not getting supplies is that NATO has run out. In addition, Ukraine faces severe manpower shortages as are result of horrendous losses on the battlefield and the exodus of men of draft age.

Throwing more money at the problems will not change the outcome of the war.

I do always enjoy your insistence that NATO is depleted. Europe is stepping up with more armaments because we’ve been unable to supply Ukraine because of Republicans and Trump. But somehow Russia isn’t depleted? Which is why they have to get their arms from North Korea, Iran and China and Russia is pulling equipment from the fifties and sixties. Yeah, Russia is doing great.

The trickle of arms still going to Ukraine is consistent with the NATO’s production capacity, which is a small fraction of Russia’s.

The US and its allies have exhausted stocks of ammunition and weapons that took decades to build up. War is all about logistics, and US logistics is based on a brief “shock and awe” battle, not a grinding war of attrition.

Clearly you have not bothered to look at the table posted earlier, which shows that western production capacity is only a small fraction of Ukraine’s usage rate.

The data in the table is from January 2023. After 10 months of the war, Ukraine’s usage rate for 155 mm ammunition was more than 10 times the current production capacity. The failed Ukrainian offensive last summer exhausted the remaining stocks, so Ukraine is stuck with whatever NATO can spare from current production.

Reality sucks. That is why American media have been doing their best to ignore it.

See that’s why you need more updated information. I’ll keep this simple and just focus on the first one. 155mm production. You’ve got it at 93,000 per year. In October, the last month we have actual figures, we were already up to 28,000 per month. So 336,000 per year. And right now we should be at 37,000 per month. So 444,000 per year. And should be at 60,000 per month by this October. So 720,000 per year. And if we can get the Republicans/Trump to stop blocking the Ukraine aid bill, they can get it to 75,000 per month one year from now. So 900,000 per year. And then to 100,000 per month by October 2025. So 1,200,000 per year.

An eventual increase to a projected production rate of 1.2 million shells per year is still far below the reported usage rate for Ukrainian forces and a tiny fraction of Russian usage. Here is a report from last summer:

It was estimated earlier this year that Ukraine fires as many 155-millimeter artillery rounds in about five days as the U.S. produces in a month, but that is likely a low estimate according to Guy McCardle, managing editor of Special Operations Forces Report (SOFREP).

“By most accounts, Russia is firing at least four times as many artillery shells as Ukraine,” McCardle told Newsweek via email. “That’s significant. 20,000 rounds per day for Russia is a low estimate, as is 5,000 rounds per day for Ukraine.”
Why Ukraine's Burning Through Ammo in War With Russia

5000 shells per day = 1.8 million per year

20000 shells per day = 7.3 million per year

The reality is that Ukrainian forces are now getting only a small fraction of what they need, which is consistent with exhausted stocks and shell usage limited by current production capacity. Here is a report from February:

For weeks, Ukrainian forces across the frontline have complained about critical shortages in ammunition, with some artillery batteries fighting with only 10 percent of supply they need… . .
“Currently the ammunition deficit is quite serious. We are constantly promised that more is coming, but we don’t see it coming,” said Khorobryi, commander of an artillery battery. Their battery has only 5-10% of ammunition needed, he said.
Analysis: A key withdrawal shows Ukraine doesn't have enough artillery to fight Russia

In addition, western artillery is not designed for the sustained firing rates seen in Ukraine. Russia has also been using its advantage in artillery and drones to target Ukrainian artillery. It is unlikely that Ukraine could match Russian firing rates even if shell production were not the limiting factor.

Of course, Russian production is a moving target and is reportedly increasing rapidly from already high levels:

“After the start of operation of the new facilities, the volume of production actually increased by almost 2.5 times,” Shoigu was quoted as saying by his ministry.
“If we talk about the manufacture of artillery ammunition, the volume of production of components for this ammunition has been increased almost 22 times, 75% of components are being restored,” he said.
Russia says its production of artillery shells has soared by nearly 150% in a year

This war is all about logistics and industrial capacity, and the US has grossly miscalculated on these fronts.

Still trying to blame republicans and TRUMP!!! for Europeans failures/policies.

How about stop tying it to Immigration reform, put up a clean Ukraine Aid bill. Oh wait, cannot do that, gotta make Trump the focus here.

That’s not accurate.

No, it’s all about propaganda and public sentiment.

The Democrats want a clean Ukaraine bill. If it went to the floor right now it would pass. The House Republicans wouldn’t let one through. They needed one tied to immigration. At Trump’s urging.

Why should a bill be put through defending the Ukrainian border while ours is an open sewer with pieces of crap pouring through it.

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Meanwhile back in Ukraine…

War time output.: The Russians have been converting, and expanding, their industrial base to armaments production since shortly after they realized that this wasn’t going to be a quick victory. Their domestic artillery shell production level is now estimated at 250,000 a month, and still expanding. Their armored vehicle outputs are also increased, but they are still pulling older equipment from reserve stocks to support their operational requirements. They also continue to source armaments from Iran and NK, enabling them to maintain rates of fire in Ukraine.

They are beginning their spring conscription call up, bringing another 300,000 troops to active duty.

A Russian offensive is expected, as the spring/summer campaign seasons makes movement easier.

Ukraine has called for an additional 500,000 volunteers. They have also lowered their draft age to 25, from 27, to make more individuals available for mandated service. They are also pulling personnel out of support positions (logistics/maintenance/transportation) and converting them to combat arms personnel to fill shortages of personnel at the front. This will have an impact on their ability to sustain logistics support to the combat forces.

They expect to get the first F-16s around June, but are reporting indications that the Russians are using the time to refine the deployment of their S400 ADA systems to counter the impact of the coming deployment of the F-16s.

The EU is negotiating a new arms package for Ukraine. But nothing will be ordered, let alone manufactured and delivered, until an agreement is reached. This could be well after the expected Russian offensive begins.

I don’t understand why Europe is waiting so long to gear up.

American $$$$$$

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