WAR in Ukraine, Putin approves initiation of special military operation (Part 2)

They could use the challengers like the AMX10s, in an armored scouting role. They could use BTR mounted infantry with them. The Challanger 2 does have thermals, and a company with a supporting Infantry platoon would make a good screening/recon element.

look again. 17th tank brigade. around 30 tanks per bn. I don’t know how may bmp’s, but likely in the 40-50 range (russians have around 40 per bn), the 17th brigade has around 80-90 tanks and 120-140 bmp’s.

russians tank regiment (bde) has 93 tanks and 42 bmp’s. 31 tanks in each bn

a motorized rifle regiment (bde) has 3 bn’s of inf with 40 bmp’s each and one tank bn with around 36 tanks.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/army-ue-echelons.htm#:~:text=The%20strength%20ranges%20from%2018,and%20an%20anti-tank%20squad.

there bn’s are smaller than ours. but not much smaller, and heavier on tanks

well if you want cav at bde level, i suppose a company would do. i’m used to cav squadrons, but that supports a division.

31 vehicles per battalion Was the Infantry or tank battalion standard, has been Russian/Soviet doctrine forever. A tank division didn’t have any organic infantry in its tank regiments. It did have a BMP or BTR equipped Infantry regiment with 3 standard battalions They would task out the infantry battalions to the tank regiments. Motorized Rifle Divisions had a 50 tank independent tank battalion of 51 tanks They would task out the companies of the ITB to provide tank support to the motorized rifle regiments. This will have to be a hybrid formation. They have enough M55s to task organize into 3 motorized rifle heavy combined arms battalions. 28 M55s + 50 M2s + 31 BMP/BTRs = 109 combat vehicles.

My last division assignment eaxh brigade had an organic Cav platoon, and a GSR squad from my I&S company. As I said, the engagment capabilities of this Brigade are going to allow it to punch like a unit twice its size. The biggest risk to it will be getting ambushed at close range. I’d want a recon element of mixed M2/AMX10 to prevent that from happening. The thermals on the M2s would provide a significant detection advantage.

your math is absolutrly false. 28 tanks and 50 bradleys is a battallion, not a brigade. There are NOT 9 tanks in a bn. And again, what you describe is a motorized rifle regiment (which is a brigade) not a division. You are just wrong

unless they give it two more bn’s, its not going to be a brigade. by anyones standard

this is wrong. 36 TANKS per bn is or was the standard for the tank bn in a mororized rifle regiment, which also had/has 3 infantry bn’s with 40 BMP’s each. A regiment is a brigade, not a division.

A tank brigade would have 93 tanks in the russian system and 42 BMP’s. 31 TANKS per bn.

Its not the total number of vehicles, its the type and totals

Brutal attrition rate for the Russians:

Over 1000 dead and 14 tanks taken out in just one day. Thats astonishing but every day has usually been north of 500. Putin is just hurling men at these lines and occasionally making tiny gains but mostly just getting tens of thousands of Russians slaughtered. Brutal.

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-russia-suffered-record-1-144738635.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall

By the way- this is an answer I saw elsewhere to how the war will end and its pretty much what I think too-

How will the war end?

“The way the Korean War “ended” - an “armed truce” with no genuine peace treaty. Russia will retain Crimea but may have to give up Donbass or at least parts of it. Then Ukraine will ultimately join the EU (although perhaps not NATO). Ukraine will be rebuilt with Western aid and will become a regional powerhouse much like South Korea has and Russia will slowly decline in favor of China. Although nobody will really “win”, Ukraine will ultimately emerge in a better state than Russia but will have to live with an unfriendly neighbor, much like South Korea does.”

I don’t think Russia keeps Crimea. I think Ukraine takes Crimea back before the Donbas. Maybe they (Russia) can find a way to supply it, but it seems doubtful to me.

While all of our attention is on other things, Russia appears to be getting ready for a winter offensive. The indications are that they are going to throw somewhere between 300,000 -500,000 additional troops and 1800 tanks at Ukraine in the next 10 days. Last time they split their forces. This time they appear to be concentrating their forces.

a look at the numbers reveals its likely closer to 150K. the others have already been sent to the fronts in donbas and zaporhizia. further, it appears the grand final offensive has already begun. and it ain’t going well. my guess is they’ll make a play at kupiansk, and may get into the sector east of the oskill, and also a play toward lyman, where they won’t make it to the oskill. at this point, one has to wonder if bakhmut will even fall. all of that is directed at a play at sversk, which at this point is russian dreaming. they could gt to it, but taking it is another matter

the good news is about the time it peters out, ukraine should have 5 new brigades. 3 armor and 2 motorized making up a tank army. get ready to roll!

Ukraine’s military announced . . .

The Ukrainian report about Russian casualties has the same credibility as another report about the mythical “ghost of Kiev”.

The BBC has been stridently pro-Ukrainian since day one, but even they are using “borrowed time” to refer to the precarious position of the Ukrainian Army in Donbas.

As discussed in another thread, a recent Rand study is saying that a negotiated settlement is in the best interest of the US.

Beyond the potential for Russian gains and the economic consequences for Ukraine, Europe, and the world, a long war would also have on sequences for U.S. foreign policy. The U.S. ability to focus on its other global priorities —particularly, competition with China— will remain constrained as long as the war is absorbing senior policymakers’ time and U.S. military resources. . .A dramatic, overnight shift in U.S. policy is politically impossible—both domestically and with allies—and would be unwise in any case. But developing these instruments now and socializing them with Ukraine and with U.S. allies might help catalyze the eventual start of a process that could bring this war to a negotiated end in a time frame that would serve U.S. interests.
RAND Study Sees Risks In Prolonged War – The Burning Platform
In a dramatic reversal, Pentagon think-tank calls for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine

Perhaps elements of reality are finally starting to settle into Washington and London.

The only thing going on right now appears to be probing attacks.

I don’t give either side any credibility myself.

We should just stay out of it.

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If this is the heralded Russian offensive, it looks like more of the same. Massive casualty rates for little gain.

It hasn’t started yet.

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i believe you mean as you got it wrong in another thread.

pssst… bakhmut is in donbas, it is not donbas. 6 months of trying and bakhmut is still held by ukraine.