By the way- this is an answer I saw elsewhere to how the war will end and its pretty much what I think too-
How will the war end?
“The way the Korean War “ended” - an “armed truce” with no genuine peace treaty. Russia will retain Crimea but may have to give up Donbass or at least parts of it. Then Ukraine will ultimately join the EU (although perhaps not NATO). Ukraine will be rebuilt with Western aid and will become a regional powerhouse much like South Korea has and Russia will slowly decline in favor of China. Although nobody will really “win”, Ukraine will ultimately emerge in a better state than Russia but will have to live with an unfriendly neighbor, much like South Korea does.”
I don’t think Russia keeps Crimea. I think Ukraine takes Crimea back before the Donbas. Maybe they (Russia) can find a way to supply it, but it seems doubtful to me.
While all of our attention is on other things, Russia appears to be getting ready for a winter offensive. The indications are that they are going to throw somewhere between 300,000 -500,000 additional troops and 1800 tanks at Ukraine in the next 10 days. Last time they split their forces. This time they appear to be concentrating their forces.
a look at the numbers reveals its likely closer to 150K. the others have already been sent to the fronts in donbas and zaporhizia. further, it appears the grand final offensive has already begun. and it ain’t going well. my guess is they’ll make a play at kupiansk, and may get into the sector east of the oskill, and also a play toward lyman, where they won’t make it to the oskill. at this point, one has to wonder if bakhmut will even fall. all of that is directed at a play at sversk, which at this point is russian dreaming. they could gt to it, but taking it is another matter
the good news is about the time it peters out, ukraine should have 5 new brigades. 3 armor and 2 motorized making up a tank army. get ready to roll!
The BBC has been stridently pro-Ukrainian since day one, but even they are using “borrowed time” to refer to the precarious position of the Ukrainian Army in Donbas.
As discussed in another thread, a recent Rand study is saying that a negotiated settlement is in the best interest of the US.
Beyond the potential for Russian gains and the economic consequences for Ukraine, Europe, and the world, a long war would also have on sequences for U.S. foreign policy. The U.S. ability to focus on its other global priorities —particularly, competition with China— will remain constrained as long as the war is absorbing senior policymakers’ time and U.S. military resources. . .A dramatic, overnight shift in U.S. policy is politically impossible—both domestically and with allies—and would be unwise in any case. But developing these instruments now and socializing them with Ukraine and with U.S. allies might help catalyze the eventual start of a process that could bring this war to a negotiated end in a time frame that would serve U.S. interests. RAND Study Sees Risks In Prolonged War – The Burning Platform In a dramatic reversal, Pentagon think-tank calls for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine
Perhaps elements of reality are finally starting to settle into Washington and London.
no. whats going on is the vaunted great russian offensive. they’re losing about 1000 a day and 30-50 vehicles. russia doesn’t have 500K more troops or 1800 tanks. they had a total of 500K from their conscription and mobilization combined. they’ve already sent the majority of them to the front.
Russians are very good at dying for their country even when their country is not at risk. The ability to endure suffering is a matter of national pride.
word is the russian plan is to take kupiansk, lyman and sversk. To do this thay have to take dorichna, and bakhmut and hold kremmina. The idea being to push ukraine back to the oskill and hold the east bank allowing them to pressure kramatorsk and sloviansk from the north and southeast. I give them even odds on taking bakhmut and holding kremmina. Thats about as far as they’ll get.
Hmmm…I know the new arms (tanks, arty, etc) are coming in different batches. Any sense of how quickly and effectively Ukraine can use this new weaponry?
problem is the slow walking of the equipment. Training will be done and all together they’ll have 500 tanks. enough for a large tank army of 5 ABCT’s. Add in a a couple motorized BCT’s and they’ll have 2 armored divisions. But not likely to have it all until late jun. Probably 2 brigades worth in march. which is enough for a limited offensive. IMO, they should keep it in reserve until they can mass for a lager attack. i doubt they’ll wait though.
