War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries

The Center for Strategic and International Studies repeatedly ran an extensive war game simulation of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

They found that China would be unlikely to take Taiwan.

They also found that the cost to China, Taiwan, Japan and the United States would be grievous and crippling.

China would get the worst of it with 10,000 casualties, 155 aircraft lost and 138 major ships lost.

Taiwan would be back in the stone age with its Navy completely destroyed, heavy casualties and its infrastructure wiped out.

Japan would take heavy military damage and likely extensive damage in its home islands.

The United States would lose, at a minimum, two supercarriers, 10 to 20 other large surface combatants and 3,200 men. I think that might be a conservative estimate of human losses, given that a Nimitz-class carrier has a crew of 5,200.

The United States would be crippled militarily for 20 years at a minimum. It would take a long time to make up that level of loss. Most likely our bases in Japan would be destroyed.

If war with China comes, it will be brutal for all involved.

Big Scary Russian Chinese military!

Saddam’s army was once scary too.

Some people never learn. :rofl:


I worry about the cost asymetry between thousands of million dollar hypersonic anti-ship missiles and a handful of billion dollar super carriers.

Not only that. But we have only two shipyards capable of building certain warships. That is why it would take fully two decades to make good any losses.

In a rare move, China released simulation results showing that US carrier groups are vulnerable to hypersonic missiles.

The US came to similar conclusions back in 2019 and 2022. The improvements in missile technology may be make things even worse today.

I feel like those numbers are really underestimated.

The casualties would be insane.

who says China will stop at Taiwan?

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The US has been working overtime to instigate a war between China and Taiwan. Neocons have delusions that the US can win a war China, but our own simulations say otherwise.

My observation is that the deranged neocon policies actually help Beijing. They create a foreign enemy that distracts from internal problems and provides a pretext for greater suppression of dissidents inside China.

If the US succeeds in provoking a war, a likely result would be multiple American supercarriers at the bottom of the Pacific. The era of world domination by the US would be over even if there is no invasion of Taiwan.

Chinese hypersonic missiles have a range of 2500 miles, so any carrier in the western Pacific or northern Indian Ocean would be at risk. A few strategic Chinese bases could render the carriers obsolete worldwide.

Yes, the estimates are arguably best-case scenarios for a war with China.

Russia and China have created a de facto alliance. Any war in the Pacific could rapidly escalate into WW3.

China will continue to saber rattle but nothing more. China depends too much on exporting goods to the US, EIU and other western countries. They can not afford the loss. And Taiwan has the largest semiconductor foundry in the world which supplies chips to a lot of western companies. So if China attacked there would be more of a response against them than just the US and Japan.

You may be right, but for different reasons.

The US is losing the proxy war in Ukraine. Simultaneous war in Europe and the Pacific is clearly suicidal to anyone but the most deranged neocons. The US may back off efforts to incite war with China.

Thanks for that. And on the other subject, the US and NATO will not let Ukraine lose.

And China will not let NATO win. They know that NATO’s next target is China, and NATO has a history of unprovoked aggression.

China’s economy is ten times the size of Russia’s. Its industrial production is twice that of the US. It will take years to replenish the US weapons stocks just from the war with Russia.

The 2019 simulations showed that the US would lose badly in fight with either Russia or China fighting by themselves. Fighting both at the same time is suicidal.

comedy gold!

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Come on now…after what we have witnessed?

All the “experts” on CNN were predicting 20-30,000 U.S. casualties in the first week of Desert Storm via chemical gas attacks and trench warfare, leading all the way up to the kickoff.

Well, you know the rest… :rofl:


Russia is currently hitting the wall trying to fight the European equivalent of West Virginia.

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Not sure how well hypersonic missiles will do against particle beam defensive weapons. Seeing that the particle beam weapons engage at near the speed of light and any disruption of the surface of a hypersonic weapon will result in catastrophic failure due to atmospheric friction.

Russia is a ■■■■■■■ joke.

China is a realistic threat.

The X factor that makes this so potentially brutal for the United States is that we would have to fight China in their own back yard.

This ain’t World War II. They won’t oblige us like Japan did by sailing out to Midway.

We have to come to THEM.

Whether we win or lose, we will take catastrophic levels of damage in a war with China. That is guaranteed. At least two Nimitz or Ford-class carriers will likely end up at the bottom of the Pacific.

The best solution is just not to get in a war with them in the first place.

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It depends on what we’re willing to give up. We could about sink them just by putting import taxes on Chinese goods that made them comparable to other brands in price.

The problem is, trading our economy for cheap goods is what has inflated our standard of living artificially. Doing this would be healthy long term, but in the short term Americans would have to readjust what they thought their standard of living should look like.

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