The variable that changes is the number of infected people that are spreading the disease. The earlier you issue the stay at home order, the fewer infected people are out there spreading the disease.
I see two ways that variables or baseline conditions could be changed.
The US, upon learning there was any chance of infection on US soil, would have immediately began aggressive testing and isolation. We had cases here very early in the process and this was not done. There is no way to prove or disprove how this would have played out. We can only go by what history has shown. If successful, you would expect it to have saved lives.
Current social distancing practices (and other measures) were put in place earlier. This is more simple to model and you’re simply moving a starting point back in time and using current models or better yet current data to model what the infection and mortality rates would have been. If the current measures work, it is very safe to say doing them sooner would have had an impact.
In the end these are models and assumptions. There is no way to show any of these would have changed a thing unless you have a fancy DeLorean. I agree at this point the ship has sailed. Politicians stating these things are political. However, the idea that if things were done differently things wouldn’t be as bad doesn’t need to be political or inflammatory. It can just be a statement. Hindsight is 20/20 sort of thing.
From the very beginning Trump downplayed the virus in his press briefings.
“Oh, we’ve got 14 cases that will go down to 0.”
“We’ve got this under control.”
President of the US wasn’t concerned, he’s trained people to not believe mainstream media - so they ignore all warnings.
It’s happening again now with his “liberate Michigan” crap.
How many people are going to think, Well, gee, those protesters want their state to open up and Trump is encouraging them, so ■■■■ that stupid mask and social distancing.
He’s directly responsible for at least one death with that kind of downplaying.
On the other hand, those churches that continued to hold mass gatherings and the people stupid enough to attend them - because they believed Trump or because they believed their priest? - are also to blame.