US Corona Virus Response Cost Lives

[WuWei]

This claim has been made over and over again. Pelosi made it today talking to Chris Wallace (I think).

It has been made more times than I can count on this forum. Mostly that “Trump’s inaction in February cost lives!” Pretty much word for word what Pelosi said.

So my question is how, how many lives and what proof do you have?

I thought @conan thread on blame was interesting. The results basically “No, I don’t blame Trump for the virus, I blame him for allowing more people to die than was necessary!”

I find that difficult to understand. It seems the presumption is if we had done something sooner, it wouldn’t be as bad as it is.

Based on what? Did anybody die because they needed a ventilator and one wasn’t available "for example)? Was anybody turned away from a hospital? Denied access to a doctor? I certainly haven’t seen any credible evidence of it. So the hospital system was protected. Mission accomplished.

Do you really think you can control the spread of a respiratory virus in a city such as New York?

It was inevitable that it would make it’s way to the US. Once it reached here, it was inevitable that it would spread to the cities.

Once you are exposed, and you either have been or will be, there are a limited number of outcomes:

1. You don’t get the disease.
2. You get it but you are asymptomatic
3. You get it and are symptomatic
4. Symptomatic - Recover
5. Symptomatic - Recover with medical intervention
6. Symptomatic - Die

What about the timing of the response changes any of those outcomes?

You think you are going to “contact trace” 20.3 million people? Test them, then do what with them?

If they test positive but are asymptomatic, what do you do with them? How long?

And that’s just one area.

This claim seems to be based on the belief that somehow we can keep people from being exposed; I don’t think that is a realistic expectation in this country.

Now some will claim “XYZ country did it, we can too.” No. That is simply not true.

Once the risk is assumed, which we did by building this system, we have zero control over the outcome.

So I’d like to see some kind of real evidence that the casualty figures would have been any different with a different response - which by definition comes after the risk is tolerated.

[WuWei]

And a follow on question: The PPP is part of the response. Is Pelosi holding up reloading PPP and if so why?

[SottoVoce]

You can’t go back in time so there’s no way to prove anything.

However, based on the response of other nations, if the US had aggressively identified and isolated infected individuals, you would have saved lives and avoided general quarantine measures. By the time the US began to respond, the virus had spread to the point where this was no longer possible.

Again, no way to prove anything would have been different other than using models from other countries which did just that (detect and isolate).

[Mountain_Soldier]

I found that interesting too. Especially the part about being like South Korea. South Korea is approximately the size of Indiana. How is it possible to do something similar to what they did on the scale of the entire US?

[Sknyluv]

@WuWei

So my question is how, how many lives and what proof do you have?

From a recent report.

If social-distancing measures had been implemented on March 9, a week earlier, the move would have reduced the death toll by an estimated 60%, the report said. And in New York City, the site of the country’s largest outbreak, deaths could have decreased 50% to 80% if stay-at-home orders had been implemented on March 22.

2 medical experts estimate 90% of coronavirus deaths in the US could have...

[WuWei]

@SottoVoce

You can’t go back in time so there’s no way to prove anything.

However, based on the response of other nations, if the US had aggressively identified and isolated infected individuals, you would have saved lives and avoided general quarantine measures. By the time the US began to respond, the virus had spread to the point where this was no longer possible.

Again, no way to prove anything would have been different other than using models from other countries which did just that (detect and isolate).

If there is no way to prove it, the claim is political.

It was not possible the minute it arrived here.

[WuWei]

Pure unadulterated speculation rife with assumptions. My point exactly.

No proof whatsoever in that article.

[Mountain_Soldier]

So why didn’t NY implement those measures sooner?

[SottoVoce]

@WuWei

@SottoVoce

You can’t go back in time so there’s no way to prove anything.

However, based on the response of other nations, if the US had aggressively identified and isolated infected individuals, you would have saved lives and avoided general quarantine measures. By the time the US began to respond, the virus had spread to the point where this was no longer possible.

Again, no way to prove anything would have been different other than using models from other countries which did just that (detect and isolate).

If there is no way to prove it, the claim is political.

It was not possible the minute it arrived here.

If you want absolute proof, invent a time machine. If you want statistics and modeling, there is your proof. If you want neither, there’s no point in this post. You have your conclusion and it won’t be changed by literally anything. Why ask the question? Just one gotcha reply after another?

[Sknyluv]

@WuWei

Pure unadulterated speculation rife with assumptions. My point exactly.

Your argument assumes that social distancing doesn’t work. So let’s start there.

[markdido]

@SottoVoce

You can’t go back in time so there’s no way to prove anything.

However, based on the response of other nations, if the US had aggressively identified and isolated infected individuals, you would have saved lives and avoided general quarantine measures. By the time the US began to respond, the virus had spread to the point where this was no longer possible.

Again, no way to prove anything would have been different other than using models from other countries which did just that (detect and isolate).

What countries have successfully done this?

[Sknyluv]

@Mountain_Soldier

So why didn’t NY implement those measures sooner?

I have no idea.

[Mountain_Soldier]

@Sknyluv

@Mountain_Soldier

So why didn’t NY implement those measures sooner?

I have no idea.

Trump’s fault?

This is what I don’t get. All the liberals are placing all the blame squarely on Trump for this. Is Trump omnipotent and has absolute control over every governor and their actions? Yes or no?

[CanadianJudo]

The government response was bad.
but let leave the finger point till there dead are buried and not sitting in trailers.

[SottoVoce]

@markdido

@SottoVoce

You can’t go back in time so there’s no way to prove anything.

However, based on the response of other nations, if the US had aggressively identified and isolated infected individuals, you would have saved lives and avoided general quarantine measures. By the time the US began to respond, the virus had spread to the point where this was no longer possible.

Again, no way to prove anything would have been different other than using models from other countries which did just that (detect and isolate).

What countries have successfully done this?

South Korea and China when it comes to the Chinese mainland.

[thinkingman]

@CanadianJudo

The government response was bad.
but let leave the finger point till there dead are buried and not sitting in trailers.

how so?

[WuWei]

@SottoVoce

If you want absolute proof, invent a time machine. If you want statistics and modeling, there is your proof. If you want neither, there’s no point in this post. You have your conclusion and it won’t be changed by literally anything. Why ask the question? Just one gotcha reply after another?

The claim has been made. It is a serious claim.

What does the modeling presuppose?

[WuWei]

@Sknyluv

@WuWei

Pure unadulterated speculation rife with assumptions. My point exactly.

Your argument assumes that social distancing doesn’t work. So let’s start there.

Go ahead. Start.

It is operator dependent mitigation. What does your modeling assume?

[SottoVoce]

@WuWei

@SottoVoce

If you want absolute proof, invent a time machine. If you want statistics and modeling, there is your proof. If you want neither, there’s no point in this post. You have your conclusion and it won’t be changed by literally anything. Why ask the question? Just one gotcha reply after another?

The claim has been made. It is a serious claim.

What does the modeling presuppose?

The modeling presupposes different conditions. That’s what models do.

[Weedhopper]

I question the facilitators of the spread like WHO for doing nothing, those who accused President Trump of being racist for actually doing something to stop the spread by stopping flight from China. Then there is the fake news and Politition and Hollywood discrediting the drug used by the Doctors on the front line fighting this virus like they work for big pharmaceutical companies.