Today’s polls and discussion about polls

Politics
1780

polls from yesterday

good news for trump
—————————-

michigan +1
michigan +1
pennsylvania +1
texas +10
texas +10
florida +12
florida +5
missouri +16
nebraska +14
wisconsin +1

good news for no one
——————————

pennsylvania E
new hampshire E

good news for harris
—————————-

michigan +3
california +26
new york +18
ne-2 +12

Allan

1781

Then when you consider the polls may be off like they were in the next two elections, this won’t be as close as it looks if that happens.

Hillary was up 6 points at around this time in 2016. Biden was up by 9 points and won by 3 or 4.

1782

hopefully the polls made the corrections.

we shall see.

Allan

1783

AM polls for us political junkies

good news for trump
—————————-

Tennessee +24
ohio +8
indiana +16
michigan +1

good new for no one
—————————-

North Carolina E
North Carolina E (yes, two different polls with the same result)

good new for Harris
—————————-

illinios +16
new jersey +14
virginia +8
michigan +5 (outlier?)

Allan

1784

not an outlier, but right on the edge

1785

I call foul with Quinnipiac in Pennsylvania. I just checked and it has Trump as +2. October 7 it had Harris at +2. 9/16 it had Harris at +5. 8/12 it had Harris at +3.
If Trump wins, are they going to claim to be one of the most reliable polls around? I don’t think so.

1786

You think they’re cooking the books ? Trump has gained a lot of ground in the last month.

This is from Nate Silver’s feed yesterday:

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image1354×1174 131 KB

1787

LOL… check out MI. They’re like a ping pong ball. Them and Bloomberg, pure garbage.

1788

I really wish this dang election would get here.

I’m about polled out.

3 Likes
1789

and talfalgar….lol. they are just consistently wrong.

Allan

1790

If the last two elections are any indication of polling accuracy, Trump will win an electoral landslide. If they got it right this time around, it will be close.

1791

They are actually more consistent. Yes, they shade about a point toward the GOP, but the difference between other pollsters Trump +1 and their Trump +2 isn’t all that great (in fact, its within MoE) The difference between Qinnipiacs Harris +6 and EVERYBODY ELSES Trump or Harris +1 is ridiculous and comparing them is ludicrous.

I know the masters tell you to hate them, but…
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/rcp-pollster-scorecard/

1792

40+ million people have already voted. The election is here.

1793

Those are only the illegals voting so doesn’t count

1794

who told you it didn’t count?

1 Like
1795

glad the authorities are on top of this one.

who knows who he voted for.

could go wither way.

Allan

1796

84% errors favoring republicans.

thats just a bad pollster.

Allan

1797

You know who doesn’t poll out?

1798

with an average error of 4.3

and the one your defending has 80% favoring democrats with an average error of 4.7

so what is the point you’re not making?

1799

quinpacaic almost as bad 80% favoring D.s

emerson looks best and balanced.

lets see what they say in their latest polls

WI +1 T
NV +1 H
PA +2 T
MI +1 T
NC +2 T
GE E
AZ +3 T

looks like a barn burner according to emerson.

Allan