he voted with Obama in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016.
didnt effect his reelection in 2018.
Allan
keep hope alive
i use polls and past performances, not wishful thinking.
Allan
a few swing states polls released this AM
good new for Harris
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arizona +5
north Carolina +2
good new for trump
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nevada +1
georgia +4
Allan
I’ll trade Nevada for North Carolina. 
Nope, still not interested in polls. The first poll I will care about will be the week of September 17th.
after the debate?
Allan
Precisely.
I sort of agree SWP. I think they are useful now for watching trends.
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AZ is likely closer than the poll results, Biden voters were oversamples by more than 5%. GA also, as it Oversampled Trump voters by about 2%. The NV and NC polls were fair. A bit of oversampling black as compared to Hispanic in NC and A slight oversampling of Biden voters in NV. But overall fair.
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AZ added an abortion measure to the November ballot. Turnout will be high so it’s likely out of Trump’s reach.
keep hope alive!
Hope? Kamala still has the convention bouce coming and will likely beat him at the debate. Trump is in big trouble and he just keeps going out in public and saying bat ■■■■ crazy stuff.
I don’t need hope because we have Trump as an opponent.
you think she’s going to get a bounce pushing communism for a week?
Let me help you out. She’s going to talk about how prices are to high and then tell everyone how communism will save them. She may as well make Trump’s commercials for him.
Investigating corporations for price gouging is not communism. We’ll see what they find.
I don’t quite understand this thinking. If there are more Trump supporters in a state doesn’t it follow that the poll will show Trump in the lead? Iow they don’t seek out Trump or Biden supporters. They just ask them who they supported in the past as additional info to the poll.
they will find what we already know, the average profit margin for grocery stores is around 2%. No-one can “gouge” because if they did they wouldn’t sell anything.
There is this though
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no, its not “additional info” its a control variable. One they apparently don’t use.
Guess what, if you poll 6% more Biden voters than Trump voters in a state where he only won by 0.3% the poll will show a 5.7% Biden lead that does not really exist. Just like the final polls in WI in 2020 that showed Biden with a 6% or 7% lead. It was about 20X more than he won by, 0.3% Were the polls showing 6 or 7% correct? or did they over sample Biden voters?
It also depends on where they took the poll in the state and on what medium.
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