a few swing state polls released yesterday.
good news for harris
—————|————
wisconsin +9
pennsylvannia +4
michigan +6
good news for trump
——-|———————-
none
Allan
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Everyone makes fun of Nate Silver for it, but I’ve been doing my predictions based on vibes for years and it works for me.
a few polls for today
good news for trump
—————————
texas +6
florida +5
good news for chuck
——-|———————
Ohio brown +5 over moreno
California schiff +32 over Garvey
Allan
just a few state polls released today
good news for trump
—————————-
montana +14
florida +2
good news for harris
—————————-
california +25
Allan
one PA poll just added
good news for Harris
—————————-
pennsylvania +3
good news for chuck
—————————-
Pennsylvania Casey +8 over McCormick
Allan
If you’re a Trump supporter, this is probably as good of a poll as you’ve seen in a while.
+1 nationally isn’t great for any Democrat and she’s only +7 with women. Add to that that Biden was up by about 10 in national polling this time four years ago.
However, the caveat is swing state polling right now very much favors Harris and that’s the way to the WH.
2 week old data.
Allan
No, it isn’t - where are you seeing two weeks ?
The survey was conducted from Aug. 5 to Aug. 11, 2024
you are correct, i am wrong. thinking about another poll that a poster used.
Allan
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Just saw Nate Silver interview on Fox. He said that today he would say polls indicate Harris would be a slight favorite. He also said that polls in 2016 and 2020 underestimated Trump.
And that’s a fair point. But after 2020, they haven’t. And Republicans in the most part have underperformed since then. So just something to consider. I honestly think that pollsters tried to overcompensate for that after 2016 and 2020 and have now tried to take into account some hidden MAGA group that may not exist.
just one swing state poll released this AM
good news for Harris
—————————-
pennsylvannia +3
good news for Chuck
—————————-
Pennsylvania Casey +12 over McCormick
Allan
Those Connecticut Dave ads must be working!!!
i just think he is not that good of a candidate. will lose once again.
Allan
a few stragglers from yesterday
good news for trump
—————————-
Florida +8
montana +18
no good news
———————
Michigan E
Good news for Harris
——————————
wisconsin +1
good news for chuck
—————————-
wisconsin Baldwin +7 over Hovde
Montana Tester +5 over sheehy
Michigan Slotkin +3 over Rogers
califonia schiff +20 over Garvey
good news for mitch
—————————
none
Allan
Tester in MT… crosstabs man.
polled 10% more women. garbage
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better start an unskewed polls website.
Allan
things you should check so that you’re aware of them, thats all. if the poll was adjusted for the oversampling it would likely land somewhere between tester +1 and Sheehy +1.
so close. tester should be thrilled at this poll.
you moved it of the contested column in your latest.
perhaps its not over yet.
tester won by 3% in 2018. and 3% in 2012. has anything really changed since then.
Allan
yes. He voted with Biden
1 Like
