In Florida, Republicans added a net 195,652 registered voters between this March’s presidential primary and the end of August, while Democrats added 98,362 and other voters increased 69,848. During the same period in 2016, Republicans added a net 182,983 registrants, Democrats 163,571 and others 71,982. In 2016, Trump prevailed in Florida by just 112,911 votes
Many will vote on election day. So about 100,000 gain in new registrations over Democrats will pay off. Latest polls Rasmussen poll up by 4, down by 2 in another. Many will vote on election day to make up difference. Drug addict Gillum was leading in most Florida polls to the current governor, and Scott says in his three statewide races he was slightly losing in most Florida polls. I’d tentatively say he may be ok here. More problematic are Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania, though fracking issue may help in Pennsylvania.
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The one thing that I have learned from state polls is that the closer you are to a double digit lead the lest likely there will be a EC turnaround. And if you have a double digit lead it is almost impossible for the other guy to take the state. Of the three states that Trump took by less then a point, today the RCP average is:
Michigan: Biden +7.8
Pennsylvania: Biden +5.1
Wisconsin: Biden +4.6
Biden takes those states back it’s game over.
A couple of thing to remember on that note. First it has been shown that a registered voter does not equate to a person who will vote. Second is the fact that there were a whole bunch of Democrat voters in 2016 that didn’t vote and very well might vote this year.
How ironic would it be that thanks to GOP screwing around in various state voting infrastructures that the people saving up to vote on Election Day are the ones that get screwed by long lines and overwhelmed polling places.
Probably not since they tend to reserve that for districts where those people vote but we can only hope.
Which is why Biden has been spending so much time there. And then he is going to Georgia next week which is in play. And I am pretty sure he will follow Trump through the rust belt states next week.
RCP Average today:
Clinton took Nevada by +2.4 Biden is up +5.2
Clinton took Minnesota by +1.5 Biden is up +6.0
Both of those states might by tough ones for Trump to pull off.
Trump only took Pennsylvania by 0.72%
And so far the Republicans have been trying everything they can in the courts to make it harder to vote.
And for the most parts the courts have been telling them to go pound sand.
If I was a betting man I’d take those if they were betting odds after the no more oil statement plus a playing back of his past no fracking statements.
No you wouldn’t. If you were a Republican candidate or party member you would consider the pro-Biden polls as the propaganda BS that most genuine Republicans recognise they are.
