Today’s polls and discussion about polls

Politics
920

Quinnipiac poll:

National: Likely voters

Joe Biden 51%
Donald Trump 41%

“This is the third national survey among likely voters since September that shows Biden with a 10-point lead.”

1 Like
921

Rasmussen daily tracking shows Trump approval at 52% and disapproval at 48%. I don’t cite this to convince anyone that they should believe Ras. and not the other polls. I cite it just to indicate that this is toward the top of Trump’s historical rating with them, and a huge improvement over the past two weeks. Not to point out the absolute, but to point out the trend.
Trump obviously needs to hit this election day toward to top of his trend (though of course many have already voted)

1 Like
922

20-30 million more voters than 2016. :flushed:

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1319358871731830785?s=21

1 Like
923

Could you please show us the math that shows this is a trend rather than an outlier? As has been discussed in the past, Rasmussen data is extremely volatile, with significant swings on a daily basis.

There was a poster on the old forum, a Brit who claimed to be a published mathematician, who once took the last two data points in a long series and claimed that it demonstrated a trend. Don’t be like him.

924

Quinnipiac has him at 41% approval
Morning Consult has him at 42% approval
YouGov has him at 45% approval

Rasmussen is an outlier.

925

I’m feeling pretty confident about my prediction from @WCD9973 prediction thread.

5 Likes
926

I was trying to remember who made the 150 mil prediction. :blush:

1 Like
927

RCP now has Trump’s approval rating at 44.5%. RCP also includes Rasmussen in its polling average.

Biden is going to win the nationwide popular vote. My guess is that it will be Biden at about 52%, Trump at 46% and the third-party candidates at 2%.

928

Great post. There is nothing I can honestly point to, to discredit what you wrote, and you have admirably indicated that President Trump has not polled better at Rasmussen since before early voting started. I don’t know if it is an outlier, but I appreciate you reporting it to me. :clap:

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

929

Maybe 70-80 million early votes before the election. :flushed:

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1319633471820673024?s=21

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930

I was thinking 100 million but it may not get there.

1 Like
931

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1319639724089368576?s=21

932

Pennsylvania early mail-in voting by party affiliation:

Democrats - 1,031,663
Republicans - 295,430
Independents - 125,002

This is now a quarter of the 2016 vote.

933

Is that ballots returned or ballots requested?

934

Ballots requested.

1 Like
935

That’s crazy.

936

Over 2 million have already voted in GA.

https://sos.ga.gov/index.php/elections/record_breaking_early_in-person_voting_continues_october_22_8_pm_update

1 Like
937

A few polls from am and late yesterday

Good news for biden

Florida +2

North Carolina +1

Michigan +7
Michigan +9

Pennsylvania +7
Pennsylvania +5
PennsylVania +6

Wisconsin +6

Good news for trump

Florida +4

Michigan +4

Utah +12

Allan

938

Check out that Trump +4 poll in Michigan. It seems very suspect - no screening by education, which was one of the big issues in the 2016 polling, and it also shows Biden and Trump equally supported by Blacks. That seems highly, highly questionable.

939

I saw that. Also had black support for trump equal to biden. Lol.

It’s an outlier for sure. I expect Biden to win Michigan handily.

Allan