I didn’t know pollsters polled electors.
There’s a lot you don’t know but…I’m here for ya.
ok, so in the realm of the real, do you understand that the polls in 2016 were very, very accurate at the national level, and the same level of accuracy in 2018 will mean the democrats win about 40 seats in the house?
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The thing that makes me happiest about today is that it means ~18 months of not having to try to explain statistics and polling.
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the thing that makes me saddest about today is that it means I now have to explain these election results on top of the 2016 results every day until 2020.
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Here’s the final(ish) House projection. Dems have a 7/8 chance of winning the house. This means that they should win, but don’t be surprised if they lose. The classic way to think about this is imagine if every 8 times you opened a can of pringles, one of the 8 times a bunch of snakes popped out. Would you still eat pringles? 1/8 is a legitimate chance.
Senate projection is almost a mirror image. Dems have just over 1/8 chance of winning. Basically if the polls are undersampling young, motivated voters or first time voters, then the Dems could take the Senate. In this instance, don’t be surprised if the Dems win 50-60 house seats.
On the other hand, people should expect the GOP to win the Senate. If they pick up places like MO, AZ, IN, then they have a slim path to holding the house.
I sincerely hope its not a legit chance of getting snakes in Pringles lol
Trump’s chance of winning in 2016 = 1/3. Imagine if your plane crashed every third time it took off. Would you still fly?
People suck at visualizing statistics. It helps to come up with vivid analogies.
I understand that the electoral college is paramount and is what determines the outcome of a Presidential election. That’s ALL that matters. The pollsters were attempting to determine the outcome and they failed…miserably. If that weren’t true, they’d have said clearly that the national vote will go one way but the EC will go the other. Did you ever hear that? Allow me to answer it for you…NO!
It’s have a huge effect. Trump has been the best get out the vote that dems could have wished for.
Did not campaign here in jersey minus 3-4 house seats nor in Callie. Same.
He campaigned in trump states not battlegrounds.
Allan
Yeah, but that means 7 times out of 8 you have to eat Pringles. Either way . . .
I predict a lot of presidential golfing over the next month.
And a continued exploding deficit.
And farmers suffering.
I predict a crap ton of margaritas being consumed by me tonight regardless of the outcome. Vacation day tomorrow.
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finally someone else proposes their drink of choice.
Gillum will win and Abrams will win in a run off
But we’re not talking about a Presidential election.
No electoral college to save you guys tonight.
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Just voted over lunch. Scott Perry was at my polling place. Had a nice little conversation.
interesting to see if he wins. It’s one of the few competitive seats in PA. If he loses, the GOP is ■■■■■■■
