I recommend copious amounts of alcohol over the next 18-24 hours. Personally, I’m going with Auchentoshan Three Wood single malt scotch. If things go south, I have a reserve of imperial stouts that will get me to the finish line.
These articles have a handy list of which polls close and when. The first big races to get results will be Indiana’s Senate seat, where Donnelly is favored to win, but could be an early bellwether race. Kentucky’s 6th congressional district will also return early, which contains Lexington and if it goes blue would be a great sign for Democrats. A GOP win here would need to be by double digits to be a good sign for them.
By 7:30 ET we will start getting West Virginia results. In essence the first two Senate races will test the Blue Dog strategy. There’s not much to say if Donnelly and Manchin win, but if they lose, it could be a wipe out in the Senate.
By 8:00 ET, results will be steady for the rest of the night. I would recommend drinking no more than 20% of what you hoped to consume by this point in the night.
Michael Scarn’s final predictions:
Dems win 237 House seats
GOP holds the Senate and picks up 2 Seats (ND, NV, MO, FL) and lose Texas.
Andrew Gillum wins the FL Gubernatorial race, as does Stacey Abrams, and the narrative of the night will be the “new liberal”, where Democrats are allowed to be progressive.
Thank you my friend. I find it hard to believe that all the work the President has done campaigning around the country will not have the positive desired affect in total votes.
Yes, and that appears to be what the polls show as well, which is the reverse of what you would typically expect. There’s usually one or two head scratchers in each election, so why not go with America’s dumbest state?
No national poll had hillary winning in a landslide. Did you guys occupy a different universe in 2016? The polls had her up by 2-4% and she won the popular vote by 2.1%.
The Democrats have roughly twice as good of a chance to win the House as Hillary had to win the election, and roughly half as good of a chance to win the Senate as trump had to win the presidency.
State polls are notoriously less accurate than national polls, which is why the GCB has been stable while the Senate polls have swung quite a bit, leading to the most likely result of a split chamber.
