There are about six Senate races that are close and going down to the wire. Here is the latest in regards to these six Senate races.
Nevada: 538 now has GOP Senator Dean Heller with a 55.5% chance of winning. Link
This Senate race is a dead heat, and I really have no idea who will win this race out of Heller and Rosen.
Arizona: 538 now has AZ Democrat Kyrsten Sinema with a 63.2% chance of winning her Senate election. Link
While I will be voting for Kyrsten Sinema for Senate, I don’t really agree with 538 giving Sinema that high of a percentage chance of her winning. I would put Sinema’s chances of winning this Arizona Senate race at about 55%. And RealClearPolitics now has Sinema’s GOP opponent McSally up by 0.7 percentage points.
Missouri: 538 now has Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill with a 60.8% chance of winning. Link
Like with Arizona, I don’t really agree with 538 giving Senator McCaskill having that high of a percentage chance of her winning. I would put this Senate race at about 50/50.
Florida: 538 now has Democratic Senator Bill Nelson with a 63.7% chance of winning. Link
I now think that Senator Nelson will win his reelection bid by doing better among white voters in Florida than Hillary.
Indiana: 538 now has Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly with a 84.8% chance of winning his reelection bid. Link
I definitely think that Senator Donnelly will win his reelection bid.
North Dakota: 538 now has Republican Kevin Cramer with a 64.8% chance of winning. Link
I think that 538 should give Kevin Cramer a higher percentage chance of winning. North Dakota is a much redder state now than it was back in 2012. Back in 2012, Heidi Heitkamp just barely won her Senate election while Romney won North Dakota by about 20 percentage points. In 2016, Trump won North Dakota by as much as 36 percentage points. And the latest FOX Poll has Republican Cramer up by 12 percentage points. I definitely think that Democratic Senator Heitkamp will lose her reelection bid.