The 8 Senate races to watch

There are about eight Senate races to watch that are toss-ups this election season.
These are the eight Senate races to watch for this election season.

Nevada - I think that GOP Senator Dean Heller will lose his reelection bid since Trump ended up losing Nevada to Hillary by 2.4%.

Arizona - Arizona here is a light red state that is turning purple. I think that this will be one of the closest Senate races this year. I will put Democratic Kyrsten Sinema a slight favorite to win this, but I wouldn’t be surprised if GOP Martha McSally wins this Senate race instead.

Florida - Despite Hillary winning Miami-Dade County by 29.4% and winnig Broward County by 34.9%, she still lost Florida to Trump by 1.2%. Florida outside of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties has gotten more red (Republican) over the last several years. I think that GOP Governor Rick Scott will win this Senate race.

Tennessee - I don’t know who will win this Senate race. There are a couple of other posters around here that are more familiar with this Senate race than I am.

Missouri - I think that Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill will win her reelection bid there.

North Dakota - I think that the Republicans will pick up this Senate seat. Trump won North Dakota by as much as 36 percentage points.

Indiana - I think that the Republicans will also pick up this Senate seat.

West Virginia - Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is the most conservative Democratic Senator, and he is pretty popular in West Virginia. But Trump is very popular in West Virginia, and WV is the state that Trump got his largest margin of victory. I dont know who will win this Senate race.

Tammy Baldwin has a very real chance of losing to Leah Vukmir in Wisconsin.

I hope not. Democrats can’t afford to lose that Senate seat.

I would rate baldwin as the safest “tossup”. She should win by 8-10%.

The NJ Senate race is much closer than most had anticipated.

In at least one poll Hugin and Menedez are essentially tied. Hugin is very wealthy and can self fund his campaign.

I think in the end Menendez will win because this is still NJ, but it seems apparent from polling that quite a few NJ people don’t like him much. He was on trial for corruption and it ended in a hung jury, with the prosecutor deciding to not retry the case.

I think Martha McSally has an excellent chance of keeping the Arizona seat red. She seems very disciplined, has a great personal story, and won’t be afraid to take the gloves off if the race turns nasty (and most of them do). Plus I don’t think she’s gone too Trumpy as some of the other candidates have.

I also think Rick Scott has a very good chance of winning. If McSally and Scott both win, Rs will probably end up with a net gain, because chances are very good they will flip at least one red state.

Also something most media ignored yesterday (to no surprise) is that R turnout was higher than D turnout in both Arizona and Florida. So maybe there isn’t such an enthusiasm gap in statewide races.

Lou Barletta will upset Bob Casey Jr in PA.

This will be won on economy and border enforcement.

Very little chance Baldwin loses. Maybe 20-1 against.


Very little chance of Barletta winning this senate, see PA-18 special election for details


Very little change of Menendez losing.

Jersey people aint voting a R to the senate, not in todays ultrapartisan climate.


Manchin extremely popular. WV voters also voted in Justice to the Governors seat as a member of the Democratic Party.

very little chance of Manchin losing.


About the same as Trump winning the Presidency…

That’s actually appropriate, considering Trump got destroyed in the popular vote, and Senate races are not exposed to the same ridiculousness of the electoral college. These 8 races should lean Democrat, but there’s a punchers chance that the GOP takes 2 or 3 of them, since Trump had about a 25% chance of winning.

Casey is up +13 in the latest poll.

If you look at trends, right now Casey is trending downwards from +18 in April to +13 in the latest. Its gonna take a bit more closing of the margins before one can get nervous about Casey losing his seat.

cruz and beto are neck and neck in texas

It is a long shot. Barletta needs to get his message out and be energetic. I am not wild about the metal detector ad, though it is true the kids should have them first. The stark contrast is in work ethic and economic policy and if enough voters are reached, and upset could be had. Barletta is a likeable guy, nothing like Wagner or the guy Connor Lamb defeated.

Cruz will win, but I’m interested in what the final vote looks like. There’s definitely a lot more enthusiasm for Beto.

slightly less than that…


I know you like him and all.

Just gathering no traction among voters todays F&M Poll

“And President Donald Trump, meanwhile, is weighing heavily on the minds of both Democratic and Republican voters in Pennsylvania. With a steady 38 percent job approval rating, the president is “an essential motivating force” in the U.S. Senate and House races in the state this fall, according to the poll.”

the Trump Presidency is an albatross around every Republican candidates neck.

38% approval.

Thats bad. really bad.

Just does bode well two months out.