The 8 Senate races to watch

Interesting news…wonder if it will carry over to Nov.

If she wins, the margin will be razor thin. Koch’s just dumped in a crap load of ad $$$ for the R candidate.

waste of money. Baldwin will win.

Allan

Adding an update, all based on RealClearPolitics:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html

RCP has 9 races in the “Toss Up” Category. Dems need to win 7 of the 9, and everything else stay the way races have shaped up to regain control of Senate.

In Arizona - McSally vs Simema - Right now RCP has Sinema at +2.5 based on average of polls. The last 4 polls all have favored Sinema.

In Florida - Scott vs Nelson - Right now RCP has Nelson at +1.1 based on average. The last 2 polls have favored Nelson.

In Indiana - Braun vs Donnelly - Right now RCP has Donnelly at +2.0 based on average. Most recent poll had Braun +2.

In Missouri - Hawley vs McCaskill - Right now RCP has Hawley at +0.6 based on average. Most recent poll had Hawlwy at +3. What’s interesting is three previous polls had them tied.

In Montana - Tester vs Rosendale - Right now RCP has Tester at +3.0 based on average. Last 3 polls have favored Tester.

In Nevada - Rosen vs Heller - Right now RCP has Rosen at +0.7 based on average. Last 2 polls have favored Rosen.

In North Dakota - Cramer vs Heitkamp - Right now RCP has Cramer at +1.6 based on average. Last 2 polls have favored Cramer.

In Tennessee - Bresden vs Blackburn - Right now RCP has this a tie. The last 4 polls have alternated between the candidates.

In Texas - Cruz vs O’Rourke - Right now RCP has Cruz at +4.5. Last 4 polls have favored Cruz.

Of the 9, 8 are within the MOE. Only Cruz is outside the MOE.

Its gonna be a nail biter. Hopefully a few more polls come in and this can be re-assessed come closer to Nov.

He’s losing by Rick Santorum numbers lol.

Barletta might as well just give up and go home.

Hey Barletta could stage a comeback. He’s only down 53-37 according to the latest poll. LOL

Allan

13 percent in a poll released a few hours ago.

Good update.

Looks good for sleepy Bob right now. Barletta was very popular in Hazelton and has good charisma. He is not getting much exposure and especially in the western sector. I am still optimistic and I am certain he will make it much closer than these polls show.

Trump is president now because of a bunch of people who normally vote Democrat voted for him in the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. These are people who voted for Obama but would never vote for Hillary or the corrupt process that got her nominated. Looking at the polls in those three states, it seems those folks maybe going back to vote Democrat in the mid-terms.

The latest from 538:

ND Dem Heitkamp - 56.9%
IN Dem Donnelly – 75.7%
AZ Dem Sinema — 68.1%
MO Dem McCaskill - 62.2%
NV Dem Rosen ---- 53.5%
TN Rep Blackburn - 59.3%
FL Dem Nelson ---- 61.5%
WV Dem Manchin - 88.5%

That is basically correct. I read somewhere that about 16% of Bernie primary voters from Pennsylvania ended up voting for Trump in the general election. The two Democratic Senators of MI and PA are going to win their reelection bids. There is a small chance that the Democratic Senator of WI could lose her reelection bid, but I think that she will also win her reelection bid.

It’s a bigger than small chance, I still say. :slight_smile:

You forget, Trump won the popular vote in MOST states.