trump won texas by 9 in 2016
in 2018 cruz won by only 2.5 over beto in the midterm. the dems picked up 10 state legislature seats,2 state senate seats and 2 congressional seats.
given trumps unpopularity in texas and how close the polls are its very possible he loses
Arizona has a better chance of going blue than Texas in 2020. Kyrsten Sinema became the first Democrat to win a Senate seat from Arizona in 30 years last year. She won Arizona here by 2.3%. I give Arizona about a 50% chance of going blue in 2020.
Trump will likely win Ohio again. But I very much doubt that Trump will win PA, MI and WI again. During the midterms last year, Democrats won all of the Senate and Governor races from PA, MI and WI.
That was not people switching from Dem party to GOP. That was people not like a dirtbag like Clinton and voters being to stupid to not see Trump as worst POTUS ever. Clinton had too much Wall Street baggage. If Dem party had elected Sanders Trump lies about draining the swap would of not worked. It hopefully going to be different in 2020 but probably not cause Dem still have too many Trump like morons voting in the party who still cling to Clinton 3rd way.
Don’t disagree. But I just don’t see a Dem being competitive statewide soon.
I think Beto was an outlier. He’s cool and hip and was running against Cruz who is just a turd. But Cornyn will easily win. Trump will win. I hope I’m wrong though.
Hillary during the 2016 campaign ended up neglecting MI and WI. Trump ended up winning PA, MI and WI during the 2016 election by less than one percentage point. During the midterms last year, Dem Senators Casey and Baldwin won their reelection bids by double digits while GOP Governor Walker lost his reelection bid. Unless there is a strong third-party candidate next year, Trump is very likely going to lose PA, MI and WI next year.
It also doesn’t take into account population density in such states. High immigration like NJ is becoming increasingly over populated. Many people in NJ end up communicating over an hour or two one way to get to work. You also have to deal with that for weekend trips as well.