So with 56 days to go, is there still anybody betting on the R's to hold the house? (9-13-2018)

[koushi_shinigami]

@Snow96

So your saying Obama was a lame duck president for 6 years?

he was most definitely lame.

[Chris]

@Camp

Senate will get 3 more R seats. Upset special is Lou Barletta over Bob Casey Jr in PA.

Bob Casey is not going to lose. It is though certainly possible that Republicans could gain about 3 more Senate seats by holding until AZ and NV, and by picking up seats in IN, ND and FL.

[Sknyluv]

I’ll remain cautiously optimistic of Dems taking the House in November. What I don’t want to see, is if the Dems fall short of a majority, that that is seen as some kind of failure. It wouldn’t be a failure at all. But most definitely will be spun by the President and his lackeys as a failure. If losing 30+ seats is somehow a victory for Republicans.

[biggestal99]

@Camp

Trump represents an electoral majority.

The house however is voted in by democratic means.

Allan

[biggestal99]

@Sknyluv

I’ll remain cautiously optimistic of Dems taking the House in November. What I don’t want to see, is if the Dems fall short of a majority, that that is seen as some kind of failure. It wouldn’t be a failure at all. But most definitely will be spun by the President and his lackeys as a failure. If losing 30+ seats is somehow a victory for Republicans.

If the R’s lose 30 the house is democratic.

Allan

[Konssurvative1]

In all honesty, yes…I believe that the Republicans will hold the house in that there is still enough craziness out there to support this party as they support Trump. They thought Hillary would win too. Here’s why I feel this way. The Trump bashing that Many of us engage in…here and across the country, only seems to strengthen the resolve of the base…and there is this fervent anything anyone one other than a librul(liberal) mentality…I hold nothing out of the realm of possibility.

[reflechissez]

The “base” is not growing. There’s no electoral college to help them out this time.

[biggestal99]

@reflechissez

The “base” is not growing. There’s no electoral college to help them out this time.

R vs D, majority wins a house seat.

Allan

[Konssurvative1]

I never said it was. I think there is enough of the base that will vote at any cost. We know that Librul voters are inconsistent and don’t really come out to vote in large percentages, unless it is a presidential election. I am just saying that there may be enough GOP/TRUMP Base to outweigh whatever percentage the liberals/democrats vote at. I am not saying that the base is somehow greater in numbers…I am saying they are simply more fervent.

[Sknyluv]

@biggestal99

If the R’s lose 30 the house is democratic.

Allan

Thanks. Yeah, they need to flip like 24 seats to take the majority.

[Camp]

It also brings in true independents. Few as they are, they make a big difference.

The anti-Trump fervor is very off putting.

[bluedogdem]

Well if Trump keeps tweeting like he is Congress will guaranteed to flip

[reflechissez]

@Konssurvative1

I never said it was. I think there is enough of the base that will vote at any cost. We know that Librul voters are inconsistent and don’t really come out to vote in large percentages, unless it is a presidential election. I am just saying that there may be enough GOP/TRUMP Base to outweigh whatever percentage the liberals/democrats vote at. I am not saying that the base is somehow greater in numbers…I am saying they are simply more fervent.

They can be as “fervent” as they want to be. If there are not enough of them, they won’t win. I think you will be very surprised at the turn out. This is no ordinary mid-term election.

[Sknyluv]

@Konssurvative1

I am not saying that the base is somehow greater in numbers…I am saying they are simply more fervent.

Possibly. But back in July, Dems were more “enthusiastic” to vote.

Overall, 46 percent of registered voters say that it is “extremely” important to vote in this year’s midterm elections. This rises to 58 percent among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents compared with 38 percent of Republican leaners.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/07/12/democrats-more-enthusiastic-about-voting-in-midterms/?utm_term=.1a1950144c42

[reflechissez]

@Camp

It also brings in true independents. Few as they are, they make a big difference.

The anti-Trump fervor is very off putting.

It doesn’t matter what voters call themselves. It matters how they vote.

[dantes]

Not as off putting as Trump.

[Axxowiz]

It wasn’t just Trump democrats were heavily favored to win the Senate in 2016 by the polls.

[Camp]

This is where we will just have to disagree.

[biggestal99]

@Konssurvative1

here and across the country, only seems to strengthen the resolve of the base

Quite Frankly, who cares about the base. Those 46% or so. They are in the minority.
He got 46% of the vote in the election. and he’s sitting at 46% approval rating in todays ras.

and what happened to the base in PA-18. They disappeared,

if there are no major calamities between now and election day. Pelosi will be the SOTH. 3rd in line to the Presidency.

Allan

[dantes]

I think it takes a special kind of deprived soul to find comfort in Trump.