So with 56 days to go, is there still anybody betting on the R's to hold the house? (9-13-2018)


#1

Its seems pretty much a done deal.

Predictit at 71
538 at 83.

anyone else still holding out for a Trump like upset?

Allan


#2

1 in 5 is still a clear path forward for the GOP.


#3

I think they will. Same factors that were in play in 2016 are still in play.

PA redistricting will help D pick up some seats, but not enough for majority.

I really don’t see this making any difference. President Trump has operated as though the house were under a slight D majority anyway. You just exchange some far R seats for some moderate D seats. Might even work better for the closet D that is President Trump.

Senate will get 3 more R seats. Upset special is Lou Barletta over Bob Casey Jr in PA.

:rhinoceros:


#4

There are very few swing votes in the house, and there hasn’t really been many since 1994. If the GOP loses the house, Trump is a lame duck.


#5

I like 538’s odds. 80%+ that the Dems take the House. So I’d bet on that. But just like with everything about polls and odds, there’s a chance it doesn’t happen. What people didn’t get about Trump’s win. The odds were low, but it still a possibility that happened.

This is just a reminder to Smyrna in case he shows up in this thread. He’s going to owe some people(including me) pizza if the Democrats even pick up seats. They don’t even have to take the House for me to win. Bad bad bet.


#6

If he could not get more of his agenda through with the majority he enjoyed for the last two years, then it hardly matters. Two more years with a recalcitrant and slim majority isn’t a measurable improvement.

Might as well call him a smelly Walmart deplorable lame duck…who mysteriously has energized the economy.


#7

He can’t get an agenda through congress because he doesn’t have a coherent agenda that he’s actively pushing. His legislative successes have come from Ryan and McConnell taking the initiative and pushing their own form of whatever is being asked. The tax reform bill was nothing like what Trump wanted originally. It was an amalgamation of Gary Cohn’s corporate asks, and every bit of butter needed to grease the bill through the Senate.

Send that to a Democratic held house and it’s DOA. I guarantee you Trump won’t have a single legislative victory if he loses the house.


#8

Same factors? We have seen the good the bad and the ugly from the Trump admin.

Tax reform is huge in the High tax states.

Jersey could be left with one r congressperson (used to 6 just 4 years ago)

Pennsy could be a net loss of 4 or 5 due to redistricting.

Callie about 8 to 10.

Thats 20 in those 3 states alone.
.
People in high tax states just dont like the new tax reform.

and they will speak with votes.

Allan


#9

and he will blame Nancy for gumming the work in his re election bid in 2020.

Thats a given.

Allan


#10

So how is that any worse than his critics not giving him a legislative “victory” in his first two years?

You painted yourself into a corner on that one.

:money_with_wings:


#11

why would they? He wont negotiate in good faith with the opposition ala Reagan.

Allan


#12

Trump represents an electoral majority.


#13

Personally, I can’t wait for the Trump Twitter meltdown if republicans lose the House.


#14

I say the gop picks up Minnesota 1st and Nevada 4th for a net gain of two house seats.


#15

What truly funny is Obama was considered such a great president, didn’t have media after him 24/7 since before he was sworn in and the D’s took a shelacking in the House and senate.

The Don is under constant attack, can’t do anything right since before he was sworn in and there is questions as to if the D’s will be able to take the house (not guaranteed like under Obama).

Kind of funny if you ask me.


#16

So your saying Obama was a lame duck president for 6 years?


#17

538 is giving the GOP a 17% chance?

That’s significantly large enough that I wouldn’t start bragging if I was you…especially with so many “moving parts”.


#18

I don’t want to jinx it with a prediction. My running score at predictions thus far is 0. I’ve gotten every one of my predictions wrong.


#19

:laughing:


#20

It’s looking favorable for Dems.

That said, I wouldn’t bet on anything politically related anymore.