Rollcall.com is reporting that they have gotten a copy of an internal Republican poll that shows that post-Dobbs the issue of abortion is continuing to drive Democratic strength in the electorate.
The poll reports that in the past year support for Generic House Candidates has gone from R+6 to D+4 (a ten percent shift).
Support for Generate Senate Candidates has gone from R+3 to D+3.
Independent voters were breaking three to one for Republicans a year ago; this past April they were breaking virtually equally between parties. Much of what is driving this are new voters, who have been engaged by the issue of aboriton rights.
YThis play out in the recent Wisconsin election that flipped the state Supreme Court to the Democrats, where the Democratic candidate campaigned primarily on protecting abortion access and the Republican countered by focusing on transgender issues. The Democrat cruised to victory.
I hope we can avoid rehashing the ethics of abortion and chose; everyone’s opinions on that have been aired extensively. I hope we can have a political discussion: if we accept that Dobbs has shifted the electoral landscape in the Democrats favor, what should Republican candidates do to counter this going into the 2024 election?
So look at the May 2023 poll results. You’ve got two results from McLaughlin (which 538 rates a C/D caliber poll (ouch!) that shows a substantial Republican lead, but every higher rated poll comes out with something between a tie and a solid Democratic advantage.
I don’t it’s wise to base conclusions on that poorly rated a poll. Do you? Because once you factor in McLaughin’s track record, the results show a Democratic advantage despite an unpopular Democratic President, a very unpopular Democratic Vice President and substantial voter discontent about the general state of the economy.
You are saying polls with a poor track record for accuracy are just as good as polls with a good track record, especially if the results of a poor-track-record poll reinforce you views.
What’s the lie? You reduced the matter to one of choosing the polls one preferred. I reminded you that you were equating lower and higher quality polls. That’s not a lie, it’s a description of what your post met to me.
I don’t doubt that’s true in certain demographics. Crittin’ up the schools is going to drive a lot of them the other way.
A lot of people don’t understand what Dobbs v. Jackson actually did. Of course the republican state governors screwed up. And the media drove the frenzy like they always do.
A lot of people are very susceptible to propaganda. Many of them are of low information/intelligence.
Republicans are completely misreading the situation on this issue, just as critprogs are on the queer gender issue and schools. Mass cognitive dissonance.
Women need, psychologically, the abortion option. They are ashamed of it, but they need it to be there.
The Constitution does not confer a right to abortion; the authority to regulate abortion is returned to the people and their elected representatives. There is no central government solution.
