Republican Poll Shows Abortion is Driving Voters Towards the Democrats is reporting that they have gotten a copy of an internal Republican poll that shows that post-Dobbs the issue of abortion is continuing to drive Democratic strength in the electorate.

The poll reports that in the past year support for Generic House Candidates has gone from R+6 to D+4 (a ten percent shift).

Support for Generate Senate Candidates has gone from R+3 to D+3.

Independent voters were breaking three to one for Republicans a year ago; this past April they were breaking virtually equally between parties. Much of what is driving this are new voters, who have been engaged by the issue of aboriton rights.

YThis play out in the recent Wisconsin election that flipped the state Supreme Court to the Democrats, where the Democratic candidate campaigned primarily on protecting abortion access and the Republican countered by focusing on transgender issues. The Democrat cruised to victory.

I hope we can avoid rehashing the ethics of abortion and chose; everyone’s opinions on that have been aired extensively. I hope we can have a political discussion: if we accept that Dobbs has shifted the electoral landscape in the Democrats favor, what should Republican candidates do to counter this going into the 2024 election?

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These polls don’t seem to bear this claim out.


Different polls. Most of those are popularity of individual politicians, most of which are in the toilet in our highly partisan era.

Does 538 have aggregates for generic ballots. I looked quickly but did not see that?

The link is generic ballot.

But when I click on the Generic Ballot link for Senate races, the polls are all horserace polls between specific candidates.

The term may be “Generic Ballot” but this is comparing apples to oranges.

No idea what you are talking about, the link is to generic ballot polls.

Polls ending May 24, 2023

Generic ballot, 2024

Got it. Sorry it took me a minute.

So look at the May 2023 poll results. You’ve got two results from McLaughlin (which 538 rates a C/D caliber poll (ouch!) that shows a substantial Republican lead, but every higher rated poll comes out with something between a tie and a solid Democratic advantage.

I don’t it’s wise to base conclusions on that poorly rated a poll. Do you? Because once you factor in McLaughin’s track record, the results show a Democratic advantage despite an unpopular Democratic President, a very unpopular Democratic Vice President and substantial voter discontent about the general state of the economy.

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But that’s what it all comes down to in the end.

The right to life is the greatest human rights issue in any era. Abortion is the greatest human rights violation of our time.

And our cultural trajectory has shifted from allowing abortion to celebrating it. Much of that shift has happened in the political arena.


Upshot: You like one poll and dislike another.


You are saying polls with a poor track record for accuracy are just as good as polls with a good track record, especially if the results of a poor-track-record poll reinforce you views.

Please explain why you believe that?

No I am not.

Why must you lie?

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I don’t there is much evidence for “celebrating” abortion. There is support for maintaining access to choice when the situation necessitates it.

And come back to the point of thread: what should Republicans do about benig on the wrong side of this shift.

For example, if Ron DeSantis is the Republican nominee he will be hammered incessantly over his 6 week abortion ban. How should he respond to that?

What’s the lie? You reduced the matter to one of choosing the polls one preferred. I reminded you that you were equating lower and higher quality polls. That’s not a lie, it’s a description of what your post met to me.

No one “celebrates” abortion.
Please stop.

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I don’t doubt that’s true in certain demographics. Crittin’ up the schools is going to drive a lot of them the other way.

A lot of people don’t understand what Dobbs v. Jackson actually did. Of course the republican state governors screwed up. And the media drove the frenzy like they always do.

A lot of people are very susceptible to propaganda. Many of them are of low information/intelligence.

Republicans are completely misreading the situation on this issue, just as critprogs are on the queer gender issue and schools. Mass cognitive dissonance.

Women need, psychologically, the abortion option. They are ashamed of it, but they need it to be there.


That’s not true.


The majority of the planet believe Abortion rights are one of the greatest rights to protect.

You are on the wrong side of the argument, …then again, cons usually are.

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The Constitution does not confer a right to abortion; the authority to regulate abortion is returned to the people and their elected representatives. There is no central government solution.


What rabbit’s ass did you pull that out of?


Open your eyes. This is just one of countless examples out there: