I am bearish on the stock market and very bearish on the economy.
Yes we are going to enter a recession.
I have been known in the past to forecast “this coming recession will be very deep,” and then it turned out less-bad than I forecast, so I hesitate to speculate how bad it will be but I’m 100% confident it is coming.
Coming? Going by the traditional marker it’s already here.
Yeah well,
the unemployment thing is important.
At some point in the depths of the great depression,
That’s an extreme example, but it shows that a recession must be defined by more than GDP. Unemployment matters.
I’m with you here. Sure there’s “technical definitions” but as long as the labor market remains relatively strong then it’s at worst a very mild type of recession.
Regarding the Market I would agree that this recent rally is losing steam and could very well turn negative any day now.
Well it is an economic axiom that an inflationary boom leads to some-kind of bust.
“A” is a direct cause of “B”
The Fed has taken the possibility of a “soft landing” off the table and says
“the best we can hope for is a soft-ish landing.” (Read that twice if necessary. Let that sink in.)
AND . . . record 30% of (stock) listed companies never showed a profit at any point in their existence, note even during the boom. If you can’t show a profit during a boom, how in the HELL are you going to survive a bust?
AND . . . existing single family home sales are down 19% Y-O-Y, existing condo and co-op sales are down 29.6% Y-o-Y.
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Haven’t you heard? We dont follow traditonally uses definitions anymore.
We make up new ones to hide what’s really going on.
The population in America in 1929 was less than 122 million.
There are approximately 59 million Americans or 19% of the population presently enrolled in welfare or other social programs. An argument could be made that a portion of these are the “working poor” and count as employed. This number does not include state or federal dollars or benefits extended to the recent invasion of three million illegals streaming across the southern border.
I mention these statistics because the tax paying work force at some point will have to increase their ante to the goobermint to sustain the dependency of the takers. Inflation will soon enough prompt layoffs, unemployment claims (already rising) and business slow downs or stoppages altogether. There goes your GDP numbers.
Oh I have no doubt the economy is bad.
I routinely make fun of Dems for their (current or recent) attempts to state otherwise. This is the last chance to store up for the coming lean years.
An honest leader/stateman would raise morale while saying so. “It’s time to come together. It’ll be hard but we can do it” sort of thing.
Today’s dems cannot do it. The old Democrat party is dead. Today they hurl hate-filled, divisive rhetoric, argue about pronouns, and try scam with happy con jobs about how great the economy is.
Americans deserve the truth.
This is why we will continue to run deficits year after year. The idea that we can exponentially grow the impoverished class is utter lunacy.
I would absolutely love it if the GOP could pivot back to talking about deficits. That would be difficult given its history during recent years but with a leader like Ronald Reagan, Newt Gingrich or Paul Ryan it certainly could happen.
I would enjoy the GOP addressing issues like unprecedented crime, the lawlessness in American cities, the havoc misery and taxpayers burdens as a result of the J’Biden reckless open borders policies. Then there’s the pronoun and gender fixation by the woke mobsters that has turned the education system in America upside down and now nobody wants to serve in the military or be a LAW enforcement Officer?
Oh there’s plenty the GOP could be talking about. Why aren’t they?
You think the government is exponentially growing the impoverished class? Fascinating.
You know your post is quite funny because you said talking about deficits……
They are not just talking about it. They are running on it. What’s the plan to reduce crime levels which are no where near unprecedented by the way other than the obvious need to redo bail reform?
Simple plan, jail the criminals.
Any particular sentence lengths?
That’s the function of the open border.
Unpresendented?
Turn off your radio.
That’s the result to some extent.
