Reason for hope

I figure I’ll put this together to confirm what I’ve been talking about in my state an how we might have turned a corner here. Last couple day they been having some trouble with website but it seems they’re getting it fixed.

So there is some optimism in this fight again COVID-19

Last update Last updated 11:59pm 3/31/2020

74,789 tested with 5984 confirmed cases with 247 deaths.

Seems like they’re trying to fix clinch they had.

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus

epidemic curve that I’ve been talking about it. Keep in mind before they fixed this last day it was updated was on 28th of March. So I was going by numbers that I’ve seen and put it together myself.

They still haven’t fixed testing yet.

Which should be over 5000 a day. We been doing about 6500 last few days if my math is correct.

But the real big one that I want everyone to see is this.

That one gives me real hope.

Hopefully few other posters can update us on there state as well.

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Even with the in hospital and nursing home outbreaks you’re looking at a current mortality rate of just .79.

That isn’t’ just a reason for hope is perhaps the best news since the treatments have come available.

Sadly, democrats will still try and turn it to a negative for purely partisan purposes.

I am sorry i am sure i am missing something but 247 deaths and 5984 confirmed cases is hovering around 4.1 percent.

Where is the .79 coming from? Like i said may be i am using incorrect figures or doing the math wrong.

Musta hit a wrong key and entered a 00.

Still, with the high death rate among the nursing home and already hospitalized patients its good news.

Yes you would be correct. I’m not sure where WR got his figures.

Reason for such high death rate was Lifecare center out of Kirkland.

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I cringe every time i do the ratio as the numbers are announced. I hope you are right.

As testing expands it’s just going to keep dropping.

For the next two weeks it’s going to look ugly but unless all the mitigation efforts and treatments are completely useless that’s what we’ll see.

I definitely think it’s going to be well under 2% in the end and probably between .1 and .01%.

Remember, they had I think a 100% mortality rate on those already very ill hospitalized patients and residents of the nursing home. Same in Florida, that’s going to badly skew the figures.

in my 3rd graph you will see shaded area, they haven’t fixed it yet but numbers of test during that period was running about 6500 per day.

Notice the drop on infection.

During the peak 619/493/586 and I must have missed a day out of those 4. the last 3 days even with increase tested of 6500 peps those that tested positive is 334/232/362.

So we had increased testing with less peps tested positive.

I’m not so sure that will prove true.

I think by the time it’s over, say six months from now if they can get most or all of the population tested we may well see 60-90% of the population proved to have been exposed with the vast majority just having no symptoms at all or none that warranted testing.

They should be paying those people to then donate plasma and bank it for the next go round.

I do however have full faith that the more testing is done the lower the mortality rate is going to be.

I’m just going by the numbers that we have now. Those numbers are showing that we might have crested our hill. Now it’s up to other states to follow suit.

I think you’re probably right, I just think the total infection rate is going to be far higher than anyone is talking about right now.

Some of us have been talking for years about how a major pandemic could bring our whole system down around our ears for years and what a threat our open borders are to same.

Perhaps people on both sides of the aisle will be willing to accept that as a fact now and start preparing for the future.

Now for more good news.

Using this site for simple collection of data

If we subtract the number of deaths and active cases

5984 case
-254 deaths
-5187 active cases

563 people that have recovered…which is over twice the number of deaths. Which is better then national average which stands as of now 5110 deaths and 8878 recovered.

Just more food for thought.

That is good news and recoveries continue outpacing deaths nationwide at nearly a 2:1 ratio.

That is going to soon be accelerating which is even better news.

Jut curious.

When a person shows up at the ER with COVID symptoms, and they are out of tests to confirm, and they choose not to admit that person because they need to keep beds available, and he doesn’t have pneumonia (which is the real deathly symptom) and doesn’t need ICU care … so he goes home and eventually recovers… Is this guy (and countless others like him) counted as a COVID case? Is he counted as a recovered COVID case once he’s over it?

I guess … does it take an official positive test to be counted as having contracted the virus?

Doubtful, as far as I know only those with a positive test are included.

I have six family members working 11 different ER’s in Three states right now and that’s what I’m hearing from them but, nobody that met the criteria for a test was being refused at any of those hospitals.

Governor Reeves is supposed to issue a shelter in place order Friday.

Our state’s response has been… Pretty ■■■■■■■ awful. I find it strange. Especially when one considers the last great disaster here (Hurricane Katrina) the state government actually did a semi decent job in the response, especially compared to that ■■■■ show Louisiana had.

But this time… They blew it. Bad.

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The state response was abysmal, the damned governor failed to even file a disaster application or put her own disaster plan into action.

Instead he sat around with his thumb up his butt waiting for someone else to make a move.

The Mayor of NO did even worse.

Of course they blamed Bush claiming he was racist.

Blanco and Nagin should have both been strung up by their heels.

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It seems like we had something like 147 new cases with 4 confirmed deaths yesterday.

So will see.

My county was one of the first ones hit, but we were also one of the first areas to start restricting gatherings and also one of the earliest to institute shelter in place.

As such we’re seeing positive results, just under a thousand cases total in a county with almost 2 million people, with only 32 deaths. The number of new cases seems to be fairly linear at this point, which is outstanding. Almost a third of the ICU beds are still available, as well as 2/3 of ventilators.

The county health officers throughout the Bay Area have really stepped up during this time.

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I have read they are counting deaths for any reason as a COVID 19 death if they tested positive.

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