Popular vote outcome prediction?

So, some pranksters a while ago made sounboard calls using Bill Clinton’s voice - and let’s just say they had a bit of fun using the middle syllable of that name - which was spliced from a sound clip out of Mr. Clinton’s audiobook :laughing:

First, this is not intended as a thread about the popular vote being more important than the electoral college. Obviously, we don’t elect presidents with the popular vote.

Okay, that said: What’s your prediction, percentage-wise? How close do you think the popular vote will be? It’s a quasi-academic question, but I am curious about people’s views and predictions.

For context, here are the popular vote totals since 2000:

BUSH-GORE

BUSH-KERRY

OBAMA-MCCAIN

OBAMA-ROMNEY

TRUMP-CLINTON

BIDEN-TRUMP

Trump-82,456,592
Harris-72,328,847

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Bold!

I was going for accuracy.

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Maybe a mod can merge these two threads ?? :arrow_up_small:

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Ugh—Sorry. I usually check to see if there’s another thread, but I spaced this time. My head’s elsewhere.

Imagine my relief to not have made a prediction in that thread yet, but also my disappointment to not see the two predictions matching.

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You contain multitudes!

On second thought let’s leave these two threads separate and then we can see who wins the popular reply count :wink:

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Most of my threads drop like rocks. You’re probably pretty safe. This thread has Mondale 84 vibes.

Kamala Harris laughing

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I may win the popular count but my numbers in MI and PA are looking pretty bleak :cry:

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I am bad at predictions. Assuming the polls are accurate she will win the popular vote, but not as much as Hillary or Biden.

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Our level of division and polarization sucks. But it’s made worse by the closeness of the races. It’d be nice to have even a 60% to 40% split for whoever’s gonna win. I’m sick of it always being 14 to 14 in sudden-death overtime.

Well, that is a big problem, each side, ekes out a tiny victory, and then run the country as if they have a mandate. The presidents just sign loads of EO‘s because congress is effectively useless.

I always wish they would’ve neutered EO’s to be used for what they’re supposed to be used for like renaming state parks, and make Congress work together if they want something passed.

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Kamalabala: 91 million

Daffy D: 62 million

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using the averages from poll agglomeraters and applying the 2/3 to challenger rule and assuming 3% to other:

RCP: Harris 48.6 to Trump 48.4
270 to win: Harris 48.7 to Trump 48.3
538: Harris 48.83 to Trump 48.17
Silver: Harris 48.9 to Trump 48.1
The Hill: Harris 48.63 to Trump 48.37
Electoral Vote: Harris 49.13 to Trump 47.87
Cook Political report: Harris 49 to Trump 48

My guess?
Harris 48.53 to Trump 48.47 (+/- 47 points)
Roughly 750K votes give or take 80M

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What’s that Jeff Foxworthy line? “I’ve seen Georgia on the map! it’s Purple!!” Is sadly true about Americans rough geography IQ.

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