So, some pranksters a while ago made sounboard calls using Bill Clinton’s voice - and let’s just say they had a bit of fun using the middle syllable of that name - which was spliced from a sound clip out of Mr. Clinton’s audiobook
First, this is not intended as a thread about the popular vote being more important than the electoral college. Obviously, we don’t elect presidents with the popular vote.
Okay, that said: What’s your prediction, percentage-wise? How close do you think the popular vote will be? It’s a quasi-academic question, but I am curious about people’s views and predictions.
For context, here are the popular vote totals since 2000:
Our level of division and polarization sucks. But it’s made worse by the closeness of the races. It’d be nice to have even a 60% to 40% split for whoever’s gonna win. I’m sick of it always being 14 to 14 in sudden-death overtime.
Well, that is a big problem, each side, ekes out a tiny victory, and then run the country as if they have a mandate. The presidents just sign loads of EO‘s because congress is effectively useless.
I always wish they would’ve neutered EO’s to be used for what they’re supposed to be used for like renaming state parks, and make Congress work together if they want something passed.
using the averages from poll agglomeraters and applying the 2/3 to challenger rule and assuming 3% to other:
RCP: Harris 48.6 to Trump 48.4
270 to win: Harris 48.7 to Trump 48.3
538: Harris 48.83 to Trump 48.17
Silver: Harris 48.9 to Trump 48.1
The Hill: Harris 48.63 to Trump 48.37
Electoral Vote: Harris 49.13 to Trump 47.87
Cook Political report: Harris 49 to Trump 48
My guess?
Harris 48.53 to Trump 48.47 (+/- 47 points)
Roughly 750K votes give or take 80M