11 days left.
I am going to go ahead and predict that Kamala Harris very narrowly wins the popular vote. Maybe 0.5 % or so.
1 Like
Probably. That California-New York guaranteed high value sweep is impossible to overcome on the popular vote front for Repubs.
1 Like
Prediction as to the margin ?
I believe that Harris will win the national popular vote somewhere between 0.5% and 1.5%.
2 Likes
Probably .5 to 1% of total.
1 Like
Should’ve been 150,000,000 - 0 for trump.
Instead…98,000,000 - 40,000,000 trump over cackles.
And if you are correct, that would still almost certainly be a Trump electoral win.
you’re predicting a 58 million and an over 70% margin of victory? 
1 Like
This election has me worried about the RCP has them tied nationally as of today. How can that be. Always felt the normal was being down 3 to 5 points nationally? Now it’s 48.4 to 48.4.
That does seem too close.
You may be right.
First Republican since BOOSH to win the popular vote.
It’s certainly possible. He’s got an easier path to 270 than Harris does.
The popular vote will probably be close. Somewhere from .5 to 1% with Harris leading thanks to New York and California.
The EC could go either way at this point. I’m leaning towards Trump right now simply because his path to 270 is easier than hers. But I could be feeling this way wrong and Harris will clean him in the Midwest states. That’s the key at this point.
To put it in an even more daunting perspective - it would be the second time in 36 years.
1 Like
She will not take a single Midwest state. Not even close. 
That’s a strong possibility frankly.
It all depends on how strong he is in the Midwest and those south Northern yankee states that are always battleground states like Penn and Ohio. If he repeats 2016, he’s probably got this in the bag already.
2% for Harris would be my guess.
1 Like
Illinois and Minnesota
I wouldn’t ever say never. Hate to word it like this but she does have some strong quivers politically. Namely how bad repubs have been bombing the abortion debate and the high women’s turnout that’s caused in local elections for the past few years. If there’s a super strong women turnout this presidential election in those key states, he’s gonna bleed a lot to her. Not saying that will for sure put her over the top but I wouldn’t totally discount her yet.
If she’s smart, she will keep pushing the pro-choice narrative strongly. Normally that would be a loser but it will only hurt her in states that are already super anti abortion like the south. In more contested pro-choice states, it could very well galvanize a huge women’s turnout.
