Was more difficult to imagine them taking the Senate in 2020. They did though, and I predicted they would then.
Republican Senate campaigns are screwed, for two massive reasons: one, McConnell is non compos mentos and even if he isn’t fully out to lunch he’s not the most effective majority leader since LBJ anymore. A lot of these dudes were in high school the last time McConnell wasn’t running the campaigns.
How do you know? He hasn’t had a daily press gaggle since he stroked out on camera, his absolute favorite thing about politics, which means he can’t speak publicly anymore, and he’s retiring as majority leader in November, not at he end of the session.
Second, the RNC. The RNC funds all the senate races and the presidential race. Problem is, Trump’s legal bills are bankrupting them and donations are nosediving now that they’re promising that every penny will go to Trump.
National money follows maybe six Senate elections out of thirty three. The other ones are completely reliant on DNC/RNC money in competitive races and for all the red/state blue state nonsense the actual vote margins are like 52-48 even in likely Republican seats.
Political predictions assume that everyone’s campaign spending is roughly equal. But a close big state Senate race can cost a cool three hundred million now and if you tell me one candidate spent three and the other spent one fifty, that’s all I need to know to know who won that race.
Thank you for your service Mitch, while the last few months have been rough due to health reasons, you have done a first class job as majority leader over your tenure.
And since Trump won’t thank you.
On behalf of Trump, I thank you for all 234 of those Article III Judges (and 3 Justices) that Mitch so kindly expedited on your behalf.
I am sure Trump just overlooked the thanks to the guy that made his own lasting impact possible.
Everything you’re referring to assumes that political fundraising between all the candidates is roughly equal and also that each campaign will be funded to the level necessary to achieve success.
As I’ve pointed out, that is not likely to happen. None of your polling is going to cover the RNC cutting off campaigns in the summer because they’re out of money or it’s mostly going into Trump’s pocket.
And that’s before we get to the fact that the dude who masterminded their Senate campaigns for fifty million years is not in the game this year. Who don’t think is charge of the Senate caucus right now? John Thune? The guy who beat Tom Daschle twenty years ago and hasn’t done a single thing since?
There is one way for Democrats to retain control of the Senate - if they successfully defend every one of their seats , save WV, AND Biden gets re-elected - which means 50/50 and Kamala is the tie-breaker vote.
Otherwise, what path do you see for them to win the Senate ? Which specific GOP-held seats that are up in 2024 can they realistically flip ? All of them are in solid red states, see my link above.
I too would like to thank him for shattering two plus centuries of precedent to prevent a president from naming a SCOTUS justice in the last year of his term and then confirming a justice weeks before the election four years later.
His willingness to wreck our form of government to get an extra Federalist Society judge on the Supreme Court will certainly be seen as being on the right side of history.
Truly a a great and noble man. The moral old school conservative, give them a round of applause.
I was being partially sarcastic with that previous remark. I cannot fathom the hate for McConnell by some on the right, when McConnell was the man who got much of Trump’s agenda through the Senate.
Who are these politicians that I talk well about? I can barely stand the people I have to vote for, let alone the opposition. Politicians are an unpleasant combination of feral and subservient, born ass-kissers who will cut your throat for the slightest advantage.
Eight thousand years of public service and no one except legislative nerds are going to care anything about Mitch McConnell’s career except he straight up stole a Supreme Court seat.
It will probably overshadow “folded like a little bitch to Trump even after Trump tried to kill him,” so you can’t say it’s all bad.
If your referring to the possible identity of the Vice President in 2025, that obviously comes into play if it ends in a 50/50 tie. Which I DON’T think it will.
I think Republican will take the Senate outright, either 51/49 or 52/48.
