Your analysis is correct but incomplete. The other factor in 2018 was a much-higher-than-usual turnout in a midterm election, making it more likely a bellwether for 2020.
I am not going to join the people on this board who announce that they know who will win in November… I don’t. But I do try to look for the trends.
Lot of reasons Trump beat Hillary… including the Russian theft of emails… and Comey’s announcing the re-opening of the Hillary investigation a week before the election while never mentioning the investigation into Trump.
And Hillary made many mistakes in her campaign, no question.
I believe that the uptick in turnout since 2016 is a response to Trump being Trump, and while 2016 saw the people who liked his style turn out to vote for him, the suburban woman trend represents people who don’t think his style is appropriate at all.
I have no expectation Trump will change his approach, the Republican Senate seems to have absolutely unleashed his impulses last week. But while he will continue to have very successful rallies, I am not sure that will work for the broader electorate.
H-Arendt: Concur. Unknowns for voters to decide also extend beyond who wins Presidential election into both House and Senate control. My initial post suggests Dems might be hedging going ALL IN on defeating Trump as top objective. Suspect attempts will continue to try and misdirect focus of Trump lovers off Congressional seats up for grabs. Whatever party gets control of the House next can “trump” the President (re)elected via an unilateral power to impeach. Glad we are discussing…
This is The Most Important Election Ever In All Points In Space And Time In The Entire Multiverse!
By ensuring everyone heard about the purely coincidental fantastic employment activities opened up for Hunter in Ukraine and China, after his dad was made point man for those countries.
I don’t think that counts as “throwing” someone “under the bus” when Biden had previously boasted about it and most of the people who were pushing for the impeachment didn’t think Biden had done anything wrong. Throwing someone under the bus generally requires an acknowledgement that the person you are throwing under the bus did something wrong or is taking the blame for something you did wrong.
Throwing someone under the bus can also mean pursuing an impeachment you have no hope of getting past the senate while dashing the hopes of your parties front runner, knowing that would be the result.
If they hadn’t Trump would have pursued his tactics anyway.
Impeachment has an even wider audience than he does.
You are so funny…
My point being that you are making the assumption that they believed the impeachment would hurt Biden which I don’t think they did. It also makes the assumption if there hadn’t been an impeachment then the situation with the Bidens wouldn’t have come out which makes no sense since the whole thing started with Trump wanting to damage Biden based on what happened in Ukraine. Regardless on whether or not they were going to try to impeach Trump, that information of the Bidens was out there and in the process of being weaponized, so to speak.
The information had been out there for quite a while and hadn’t hurt him, he didn’t start tanking until the impeachment ball got rolling and I along with millions of other Americans heard about it for the first time.
There are too many factors to be able to claim that’s causation and not just correlation. Also look at this graph:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
Biden was most popular in early May and from then until the beginning of July saw a significant drop. The Ukraine call was July 25th. The impeachment in the house including the investigations leading up to it were around Nov to mid Dec. The Senate trial was the last few weeks of January, but no new information came out of that damaging to the Bidens since the republicans refused to hear witnesses.
According to that chart Biden’s popularity went back and forth within a relatively narrow range until near the end of Jan when he started to really plummet… so really there isn’t even much of a correlation.
Biden’s drop in popularity is most likely related to other factors.
On Election Day 2016, the polls gave Trump about a one in seven chance of winning. Long odds, but not impossible. Right now the polls give Trump the same odds against almost any Democratic contender, but Trump supporters are so convinced that 2016 means the polls are meaningless, and Trump opponents are so terrified they’ll lose another sure thing that there’s a lot doubt about the Presidency… reinforced by the fiasco in Iowa and all the bickering between party wings.
But the Democrats have a strong shot at gaining a majority in the Senate, much better odds than the R’s have of retaking the House. But there is no path to a veto-proof majority in the Senate or enough votes to remove from office However a Democratic majority Senate will treat Trump court nominees the way the Republican Senate treated Obama’s nominees. Four years of stagnation while the climate deteriorates, the debt mounts and the critical failures in US infrastructure go unaddressed.
What a mess we’ve managed to make!
Not zero but close. I hear the bookies are giving the dems a 15 percent chance against Trump.
Fallenturtle: You asked to explain why Biden thrown under the bus the day the impeachment inquiry was announced. As a prelude, Obama not endorsing him from the get go-kick off of his campaign is telling. Joe’s family dealings were kept under wraps: meaning not tested sufficiently. Trump getting out in the public a record of the infamous call so quickly really made it hard not to implicate Biden too .
Yeah, but they have to give some kind of odds to make money…
The “Putting children in cages” was done under the previous administration. They pictures of “kids in cages” were taken prior to Trump ever taking office.
Both are outright slanderous lies.
This is a statement coming from an alternative reality. The Trump Administration "family separation’ policy has been extensively documented, including by clergy I know who have gone to the southern border as witnesses.
Such claims might work for members of the Trump cult, but don’t bother to peddle them to anyone else.
The kids that get separated don’t go in cages, they go into very nice facilities.
You’re being fed a steady diet of lies and buying them wholesale without question.
