" Long-term Treasury rates added to their monthlong slide Tuesday, aggravating a key yield curve inversion and sending the 10-year yield to its lowest level against the 2-year rate since 2007.
The yield on the benchmark 2-year Treasury note, more sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve policy, fell to 1.526%, 5 basis points above the 10-year note’s rate of 1.476% after closing inverted on Monday. Before August, the last inversion of this part of the yield curve was the one that began in December 2005, two years before the financial crisis and subsequent recession.
The spread between the 3-month Treasury yield and that of the 10-year note — the Fed’s preferred inversion metric — slumped to -52 basis points, its lowest since March 2007.
The 30-year bond yielded 1.955% and was poised to close below the 3-month bill yield for the first time since 2007.
A 10-year rate below the 2-year yield is viewed by fixed income traders as an important recession prognosticator, marking an unusual phenomenon as bondholders receive better compensation in the short term. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retraced a 155-point gain on Tuesday as bond yields fell."
Why is this not getting any more traction? This is yet another indicator. As someone who really does not want to see the economy contract, this has me very worried. Are Trumpists just whistling past the graveyard here or what?
If only we weren’t making “participation rate threads” ever week to go along with “cooked book” rhetoric during a period of increasingly good economic indicators…
To be truthful, this is a well timed recession and if I were a Democrat, I would be “SECRETLY” praying for a recession, although I wouldn’t go around shouting it out loud. Republicans do precisely the same things when the circumstances are reverse, thus both parties are equally guilty of such secret thoughts.
EXPLOIT ANY ADVANTAGE.
That is the mantra of ALL politicians from the beginning of time to the end of time.
BTW, Democrats will be delivered the mother of all recessions. I have been examining a number of economic models.
Democrats are all but assured of winning the Presidency in 2020, retaining the House of Representatives and their odds of taking the Senate are increasing.
As have I and I am convinced we are on the precipice of a recession. Sometime over the next 18-24 months (possibly sooner) give or take. What makes you believe it will be the “mother of all recessions?” Worse than the Great Recession or even verging on a depression?
I think we could encounter a depression, particularly if Democrats take power and institute anti-cyclical policy. It will be a severe recession, worse than the Great Recession, whether it becomes a depression depends on how the next administration responds. If they step out of the way, it should run its course by the middle of 2022, if they institute anti-cyclical policy, we may have a depression on our hands before it is all over.
I’m no angel but when it comes to the economy I’m pretty bipartisan in wanting it to succeed. Those who want it for political advantage probably exist more than one thinks.
We are sitting on several major economic bubbles, including the stock market. Trump’s trade war is going to burst those bubbles, triggering the recession. Let me find a decent article to link to that explains it more fully.
I couldn’t agree more, and frankly it terrifies me as well. Not necessarily for me personally, but for my neighbors and fellow countrymen.
I fear we have such a reactionary propensity, coupled with an immediate gratification society, in current politics and at large, that it is virtually inevitable that anti-cyclical policy will be pursued.
