It’s not all about money. It’s also where that money is directed.
China has put a very focus on area denial capabilities. Hypersonic cruise missiles and large numbers of traditional supersonic anti ship missiles. They are in the process of building a fleet of fairly good 5th generation fighters that, unlike ours, actually have legs. Meaning they have excellent range. And they’ll carry anti ship missiles. Plus a new generation of attack submarines that come pretty close to the Virginia class.
They don’t intend to ever invade the US or even fight us in the vast expanses of the Pacific. They will fight us in their backyard, the South China Sea. It’s evident with their buildup. And if their plans work out, they’ll be able to fight us to a stalemate.
Because in a modern high tech war between nation states, we have reached a point where neither side can risk losing all of their equipment. All of our assets, as well as theirs, is astronomically expensive and difficult to build. We built 187 F-22s, and that took nearly 8 years to finish the production run. Aircraft carriers take five years (assuming they don’t run into issues like the Gerald R Ford has) to construct 1. Same goes for the Chinese and their equipment.
They know this. Their objective, if our Cold War ever goes hot and stays non-nuclear (which benefits the Chinese since we have a marked advantage there) is that they want to lure us into the South China Sea. That’s where the war will be waged and they will have a key advantage.
It brings their land based hypersonic missiles into play. Their Chengdu J-20s have the range to reach our carrier battle fleets from the mainland and their numerous island bases. Remember each plane will be carrying a number of supersonic anti-ship missiles with good range. Combine those assets, along with their modernizing submarine force as well their carrier force (which stands at two now, but 7 or 8 more are planned in the next 12 years) and they would be a worthy and very difficult opponent.
Our point defense systems are excellent, but they wouldn’t be able to stop a barrage of hundreds of both hypersonic and supersonic cruise missiles. Some would get through the defense network. Say we have three carriers in the immediate battle zone. Say all three are sunk. That’s 15 years of construction lost, plus about 25 billion dollars, and most importantly 12,000 naval personnel who are extremely difficult to replace.
Yes, if the war occurred in the expanses of the Pacific or they attempted to attack the US directly we would defeat them. But in their own backyard… it’s hard to say who would actually win. Most likely scenario is that we destroy each other’s air and naval assets in the South China Sea at the beginning. But they have their reserves close by. Whereas ours has to transfer from other areas. That’s a solid few weeks in which they take Taiwan.