No single event, a series of events largely relating to poor candidates who self destructed which could not be foreseen in June/July when I posted that.
That’s ridiculous. The result was exactly indicative of all of the polls leading up to it and all of the special elections in 2017 and 2018. Huge swings to Democrats in almost all races even the ones they lost. There was nothing unforeseen. You were just flat out wrong. And now again, can’t admit it. You based your prediction on what you wanted to happen.
So that means you are 0-for in modern politicking predictions. Trump changed the equation. Historical trends don’t matter near as much as they used to in this time. Also, you predicted a 4-6 seat GOP gain in the House when they lost 40. That’s not just a miss. That’s a gargantuan prediction failure.
Actually I think he predicted a 4-6 seat pickup in the senate(still wrong) and that the Republicans would retain the house. Still way way way off on his part.
Agreed, he still has his base firmly intact but it wasn’t the base that got him elected. It was the crossovers in swing states who don’t feel the same way they did 4 years ago.
I think you are right, and I was mistaken. Still, 0-for in the last 2 election predictions. And massively off in 2018, where the GOP did not retain the House, but lost in the largest electoral landslide for Democrats since Watergate.