So is the idea that as it moves north the waters get colder and it dies down?
Partly. The reason for its current decrease in strength is that it has hovered over the shallow waters of the Bahamas for a while, causing upwelling of colder water from the deep, which damages convection.
It wonât lose MUCH strength, until it passes north of Florida and gets into the void between the Gulf Stream and the Georgia/Carolina coasts that has considerably cooler water.
At the 2:00 am advisory, intensity is down to 120 mph and pressure is up to 950 mb. Still stationary.
While it obviously sucks for the Bahamas, the upswelling caused by its prolonged stay over the Bahamas is causing a very rapid wind down of the system.
I am very surprised that it wound down this fast, I was expecting a wind down, but not all the way to 120 mpg at this point.
Thatâs a lot of the island underwater.
https://mobile.twitter.com/iceyefi/status/1168618527751888898
Pivot, Dorian⌠Pivot! PIVOT!!
1200Z Model runs.
11:00 am advisory
110 mph 955 mb
No longer a major hurricane.
Storm is finally beginning to move.
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We had a few feeder bands blow through eastern Orange County, FL this morning. It has been quiet since then.
1800Z model runs.
The consensus trend increasingly shows the storm brushing the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
Probably wonât get much more than feeder bands, even as far east as Christmas. Maybe a short period of low tropical storm force winds as the storm passes directly east of you. Most of the significant wind will be limited to the immediate coast. Even the immediate coast will probably not see more than Tropical Storm force winds, maybe bare Category 1 Force winds in isolated locations.
Fingers crossed, Iâm in Wedgefield.
Wedgefield, the non-redneck portion of Eastern Orange County. 
I remember many years ago as a child when there was literally nothing in East Orange County from the Brevard County line to Alafaya Trail, except for Christmas and Bithlo.
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Hahahaha. By golly, thatâs not deplorable, itâs clever.
Pretty funny I was expecting from these type of videos some idiot out there surfing.
If anybody genuinely deserves a shout out from trump on Twitter, surely itâs that guy. I mean, cmon. That was ingenious. The whole beach was just captive audience.
The videos coming out of the destruction in the Bahamas is heartbreaking. Iâve been watching this storm since it started and I was pretty uncomfortable as that monster storm parked itself over them for close to two days.
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There is a named Tropical Storm creeping up on Texas. Another named storm (hurricane) further out in the Atlantic.
Hurricane Karen might be a possibility this yearâŚ
