This is the most recent model run for Dorian. We continue to get a more southernly track, with the northern turn occurring inland, which is the only positive thing. The worst case would have it running up the coast, part on and off land, keeping its intensity much longer.
A slow moving Category 4 storm will bring utter destruction to the land fall area and for about the first 20 miles along the track inland, then declining after that.
Right now, highest probability for point of landfall is the area from Stuart south to Jupiter. Of course, models will continue to converge during the next couple of runs and we likely will have a much clearer picture in 24 hours.
Intensity models currently paint a mid Category 4 storm at landfall. Official forecast is 140 mph, models go as high as 150 mph at landfall, which is still Category 4.
My brother and sister both live in Brevard County, on the Atlantic Coast east of Orlando.
My sister and her husband have been staying at their new summer home in Hillsville, Virginia and were not planning to go back until November. Her husband went down to secure their property and will be hightailing it out of there sometime tomorrow.
My brother brought his wife and their pets up to stay with my sister a couple of days ago, but he has returned and is riding the storm out down there. His son lives in the southwest quadrant of Miami and is staying put. If things go close to what currently is forecast, my brother will likely only see tropical storm force winds at his house. I doubt the storm will drop far enough south to cause any appreciable effects in Miami, particularly on the southwest side.
I’m hoping it rolls with the TABD model, but it won’t. This storm is interesting in that the models having it hit the mid-east coast of Florida have been consistent since it became a storm. In my long experience with Florida hurricanes, that usually ends up being the most correct track.
Most concerning is the slowdown of the forward speed of the storm as it hits Florida. More than a wind event, it becomes a rain event and inland flooding becomes a big concern.
The more reliable models are in good consensus regarding a landfall near or just north of Jupiter. They are also in good consensus regarding a turn up the peninsula.
The consensus models maintain intensity until landfall.
While temperatures are not what they were for Andrew, Dorian faces no debilitating elements, other than landfall. Shear is decreasing. There are no “dry” sectors disrupting its convection. All atmospheric elements are ideal. That is why models are in consensus regarding intensification and intensity at landfall.
current chances for hurricane force winds at selected locations ibetween now and next wendesday morning
west palm beach 56%
ft lauderdale 47%
miami 34%
orlando 32%
daytona beach 21%
naples 25%
Official track has shifted the landfall point significantly north and moved the continuing track just inland of the East Coast.
The issue is that the ridge to the north is likely to erode faster than expected, which combined with the slow speed of the storm, will bring a turn sooner than the earlier models predicted.
0000Z model run is rapidly continuing the trend. The Atlantic High is shifting east and a low pressure trough is moving in from the north. It is quite possible now that this storm stays out at sea, though how far out to sea matters quite a bit.
It is always good to be prepared. I bagged up water in ziplocks yesterday to freeze, tested out the generator, etc. We always have plenty of water, refrigerator and an extra freezer stocked. A room upstairs with a wall AC that can be closed off and plugged into the generator. Plenty of gas not only in the cars but in cans.
And, that is about all you can do.
I live on the West Coast more towards the Naples area. I evacuated to North Carolina for Irma and I won’t do that again. Mile long lines for gas and some of the people when you get to the pumps are absolutely on the brink of breaking out into fights. Scary stuff.
So, you just go on with your life. This weekend is going to be spent on home improvement stuff, lol.
I hope your family stays safe @Safiel. Thanks for the thread and the analysis. You do a great job with this (as always).
I live a little North of that. I have a full emergency backup generator that runs on natural gas. That tank is full. I also have a well backup for water so sitting nice for a storm.
My brother is sticking it in Brevard County (near the Space Center) on what will likely be the storms closest approach to land on the current trajectory. His wife is staying with my sister in Virginia. Due to her health, staying in Florida was not an option, due to the chance of power outages and she cannot do without air conditioning.
As you can see, with the Bermuda High continuing to shift east and a low pressure trough continuing to approach from the north, model consensus is rapidly shifting to the east.
NOTE that the storm is wider than a full degree of latitude and longitude, so that even if it stays offshore, the east coast of Florida could still feel Category 1 or Tropical Storm force winds.
