In any case, let’s take our current situation. Due to the Coronavirus, the DOW has dropped 35% from its peak in the 29,000’s. The DOW will eventually recover to that peak. Let’s say that happens in 2021. Does the next President get credit for that recovery, or is that something that historically always takes place. Wouldn’t it make sense to credit the next President with any gains over the previous peak of 29k?
Prior to the 2008 recession, the DOW peak was about 17k. It took 6 years under Obama to recover to that prior peak. Wouldn’t that have happened regardless of who was President? One could argue that the recovery might have taken place faster if Obama’s policies were more business friendly.
That’s the fascinating thing about statistics. With the same data, they can be manipulated to tell any story one wishes to tell.
Thus my story. In the two years prior to the election, the DOW remained flat at 19k. During the two years following the election, they jumped 40%. One can point to many things that Trump did during that two year period. Obviously there was nothing that Obama did, even during his 8 year term. Unless you believe that raising taxes and crushing small businesses with burdensome regulations was responsible for Trump’s 40% increase in the DOW.
We’ve been through this before, and I’ve done that. In my opinion, and it’s not very humble in this topic, your “analysis” is simply partisan-fueled hand waving sophistry.
I don’t recall any prior conversations with you, but I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt.
As you must certainly be aware, conclusions regarding statistical analysis are really in the eyes of the beholder.
The old glass is half full conundrum.
In regards to historical analysis, simply cherry picking a piece of data that meets ones partisan objective and calling it conclusive is absurd. I can do exactly the same thing by cherry picking a different piece of data to meet my partisan objective. In that regard we are both factually accurate, yet we’ve reached very different conclusions. To dismiss my analysis in favor of yours is absolutely beyond the pale, and if you knew anything about statistics you would know that.
“Karl Rove predicts that Mitt Romney will win at least 279 electoral college votes, and 51 percent of the popular vote to President Obama’s 48 percent”
He’s still employed. Have you advocated for him to be fired for being so wrong?
Actually Krugman may have well been prescient…since the “bad event” he talked about has most definitely happened…and Trump’s response to that event has certainly not helped matters!