I’m hopefull for First of June things start to return to normal.
The projections factoring in major mitigation initially suggested between 1.6 and 2.2 million deaths were still possible. With #'s likely trending under 100,000 planning can likely start a phase one of getting at least a certain section of the country back to work. My concern is timing might be very well turn partisan and why this topic was created.
I am asking everyone to offer input on how this will actually go down vs how we each hope ideally it goes down.
Certainly there is very little evidence to suggest politics will not profoundly impact the equation.
It spreads so quick this is going to change society as we know it for the foreseeable future unless a vaccine comes. Social distancing will become the new norm. And I am thinking we are going to see a lot more daily mask wearers.
Don’t think so on the mask wearers. I think the American ego as a whole prevents most from doing things they think are extraordinary. They may start to for the time being but as soon as they are comfortable they will go right back to the way things were. Most people don’t embrace change like that.
As for social distancing, we can barely get people to do that now and it takes a state mandate just to get people to basically voluntarily do that. At the very least perhaps COVID-19 will get a much larger section of the public to start practicing basic hygienic practices like washing your freaking hands on a regular basis, and not taking the stupid stance of “We played in dirt all the time when we were kids, and our parents made us hang out with the kids that had chickenpox” mentality, cause I can tell you personally I’ve seen tons of posts on my own personal facebook from a lot of people I know who have posted similar things to that recently.
The Center for American Progress, who did a report on the virus exit plan recommends states maintain stay at home orders at least through May 20th. That will probably be the case for NY and NJ. If not longer.
The goal is to not break the hospitals.
This area has leveled new cases for two weeks and is at 25 percent capacity for ICU.
We are fine to open business with personal space restrictions.
In all due respect, the Center for American Progress is a not for profit 501©(3) policy institute that purports to develop new progressive ideas and challenge the media in a more non-partisan fashion. Putting out recommendations for how long stay at home orders should last is problematic. The report you refer to can be construed as partisan being the POTUS has not even disclosed tentative plans on this very topic yet.
I can foresee attempts to sabotage states that open with deliberate spreading from closed states to discredit Trump’s advice to open them.
The POTUS really has no choice. Once he unveils his Plan to get America back to work, the pressure falls on the States to police abuses. This is why I envision opening up of the country may initially tilt towards red states as Democratic Party powers-to-be might assert pressure on their blue governors to stay out longer than Federal government ultimately recommends.
That won’t work.
It is up to each state Governor. If the Governor does not act in good faith then the State legislature would need to get involved. In Pennsylvania I could see Wolf dragging his feet, but our state R legislature won’t let him.
We will be good to go from Harrisburg to the Ohio border.
No predictions regarding the spread of this disease are completely precise, but these are models that the White House has cited that give state-by-state projections for when cars will peak and how they will decline. This could be a starting point for planning re-openings.
Those models sure look different from a week ago.
Good.
They are catching up to reality.
Take a look at the data here on the 11 States whose governorship is up for grabs in November:
Party - State - Population- Per mile Density -Ranking - Peak COVID-19 date- daily deaths per 1,000
Rep-IN- 6.6M-185 per capita- #16/50 states-Peaks Apr 16th-1.4 deaths per 1,000 projected
Rep-MO-6.1M-88 per capita- #28/50 states-Peaks Apr 18th-0.2 deaths per 1,000 projected
Rep-NH-1.3M-148 per capita- #21/50 states-Peaks Apr 16th-0.1 deaths per 1,000 projected
Rep-ND-0.8M-11 per capita - #47/50 states-Peaks Apr 20th-2.9 deaths per 1,000 projected
Rep-VT-0.6M-68 per capita - #31/50 states-Peaked Apr 1st-0.3 deaths per 1,000 projected
Rep-WV-1.8M-77 per capita - #29/50 states-Peaks Apr 17th-1.0 deaths per 1,000 projected
Rep-UT-3.0M-37 per capita- #40/50 states-Peaks Apr 18th-0.2 deaths per 1,000 projected
Dem-DE-0.9M-484 per capita - #06/50 states-Peaked Mar 31st -0.4 deaths per 1,000 projected
Dem-NC-10M-206 per capita- #28/50 states-Peaks Apr 18th-0.2 deaths per 1,000 projected
Dem-OR-4.0M-42 per capita- #39/50 states-Peaks Apr 21th-0.2 deaths per 1,000 projected
Dem-MT-1.0M-7.1 per capita - #48/50 states-Peaked Mar 30th-0.4 deaths per 1,000 projected
At 1st glance, 3 states according to the NPR.org report have already peaked. Two are blue and one is red and probably all are among the group of states being prime candidates to get back to work earlier. Add to the intrigue how Delaware being where Biden resides and Vermont although a blue state having Sanders as its Senator.
Several doctors advice on when it will be time to re-open.
For those of you who cannot get past the firewall, they offer four criteria.
- Hospitals in an area must be able to treat all patients who require hospitalization with resorting to crisis standards of care.
- A state must be able to test everyone who has symptoms
- The state must be capable of monitoring all confirmed cases and contacts
- There should be a sustained reduction in cases lasting at least fourteen days.
In summary, create conditions where control of the virus is likely and then turn attention to rebuilding the economy.
So looking at these 11 states we could have several of them open up in early May…
If safe conditions are met that would be wonderful news.
I think number 4 could be 10 or even 7 days.
Otherwise not too bad.
We had better start figuring out how to get this economy working again. I know I ll get hammered for this but…
The Nation’s Economic Health is a public health issue … and we are devastating our economy…
If this continues thru May…well I don’t actually think people will tolerate it.
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Again I ll get hammered for this but…
Are models ever right…
We ve gone from a million people dying to 60000?
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We were asked to save the hospitals.
We did.
58 covids on the USN Comfort with beds for 500.
Time to let business start back up with spacing and sanitary protocols.
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