In comparison to the last election if I recall correctly Hillary and Bernie had established themselves as the two viable candidates early on. With the current election I have a feeling that there will be four viable candidates for a while.
Personally I don’t have a strong conviction of who is going to take it. Regarding who won’t be there, I believe Democrat primary voters don’t want a NY billionaire and I would not on Biden either.
Curious on how others are assessing the field?
I’m going with the bookies. 15% chance of their best candidate scoring the White House this year. 
That high huh? 
I like it.
Looks to me like Sanders is the front runner.
That’s who has the 15% chance. 
Just a reminder that Ted Cruz won the Republican Iowa caucus in 2016, so at this point in 2016 he was the Republican frontrunner by the metrics in this thread.
Are you talking specifically the presidential election?
If so I’d say it’s a pretty slim chance at all of of of the candidates on the dem side winning. The odds are never favorable against an incumbent in that situation.
As for congress. Well I dont see the dems losing the house, and based on the number of GOP senate seats running, there is a chance the dems could take it by a VERY slim margin. That would all but nullify the next two years of Trumps nearly inevitable reelection.
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IMHO…
Turn out will be the deciding factor. Low overall turnout and Trump wins.
If the DEMs run a candidate from the socialist wing (Sanders or Warren) then moderates and independents will not turn out in numbers and Trump is 100% reelected as many of the moderates will stay home.
On the other hand…
If the DEMs nominee is a moderate (in reality, not just Trump and his base running around shoulting “socialist” and “communist”), then moderates and independents will turn out in numbers and Trump will remain the 3rd impeached President and will be a one term President.
If the DEMs run Sanders or Warren in the General, then I’ll do what I did for the last 40 years and vote GOP (I voted for a GOP candidate in 2016 in the Primary and General - just not Trump). If they nominate a moderate I’ll vote DEM in the Presidential race for the first time ever.
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.WW, PHS
Sorry I meant the Democratic nomination.
I meant the Democrat nomination…I fixed it.
In that case, how many super delegates are still up for sale grabs?
I have a feeling that the powers to be will do everything possible to prevent him from winning.
I could see them allowing it this time. He would get creamed by Trump and never poll high in another primary again.
He made it to the final two, and there were many who felt he would be the candidate early on and along the process.
Do you give Klobuchar a chance of winning the Dem nomination? She is likely the most moderate.
being vertically challenged is not a handicap… give Mike a box upon which to stand
Don’t know. Haven’t been following the DEMs very much.
Virginia is an open primary state and for the first time ever I’m seriously considering an Operation Chaos 2020, voting myself and encouraging my friends to vote in the DEM primary to hopefully move them to the middle.
I will need to learn more specifics and will probably stream their past debates before deciding (I didn’t watch them before).
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.WW, PHS
I dont see any of the dem nominations being able to beat Trump. Biden could but the party wont band together behind him and he doesnt have the hold your nose crowd that Trump did in 2016.
If I were a ideological righty I’d be praying they could hold the Senate and that would be my only concern. The presidency isnt all that important this time around. If the dems take the Senate that means no more judges and that is at the top of the list. He will be a lame duck for at least 2 years and his entire 2nd presidency could be nullified.
I’m not even thinking that far ahead as so much can change from now till September-October. I think this Democrat primary is not so easy to call. What say you?
I’m going with they’re all handicapped.
