Man, this thing incubated in China for two to three months with their government misreporting the data to avoid panic. It started in a city of 11 million people. 90k people have been diagnosed, a number which I think and has been speculated by more than me as a woeful underestimate. During that time, people traveled in and out of that region unaware of any quarantine, because there was none, until January 23. So you have unrestricted travel in and out of Wuhan for a month after the first case was discovered (December 31). The US may have imposed restrictions on travel, but the rest of the world was slow on the uptake as cases broke out…we’ll virtually everywhere.
It is my contention that this thing has been a pandemic for at least two weeks, possibly longer, in that it has traveled the globe unrealized by government officials until clusters start breaking out. Cases of unknown origin is proof of this line of thought. Attempts at quarantine at this point, hell even two weeks ago, is like a dog chasing it’s tail. With the transmission of the virus being possible if asymptomatic, and some not even becoming ill but still carriers, makes it near impossible to quarantine or even track.
This thing is in your back yard. You don’t know it yet, but it just is. This isn’t a call to panic. It’s just reality. Some will get sick, some will die. The effort at this point should definitely be to continue good hygiene, prevent others from being sick. But have no doubt, this virus is going to run through each and every one of us like a bowl of Wendy’s chili. It’s only a question of how long we can stave it off and treat at risk people with a vaccine once developed.