Here is what I believe Trump is doing

Trump is forcing each individual country to come to him to hammer out a deal trade deal.

Take Europe for example. Europe needs to spend hundreds of billions more on there defense and stop relying on American. It’s about time they stand on there own two feet.

So what’s the deal? We have proven weapons, very weapons that Europe needs to fight off big bad Russians. Very weapons that Europe needs.

Solution…buy American weapons while preparing to pay for there own defends, very defend that they should be doing to keep Red Sea open.

So if they buy 300/400 billion per year on American weapons…we’re call it good.

So far we are now running about 25 billion per month deficit in first 2 months of this year.

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This might not work out like you think. the EU has for some time been wanting to reduce its dependence on the US.

Aren’t the tariffs, by and large, a match of what the reciprocal country puts on our exports to them?

If so, then the simple deal for most of these countries is to drop their tariffs.

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EU would first have to start developing and manufacturing their own stuff, of course.

And the same goes for the USA.

The pandemic showed us how dependent we are on Chinese goods. I wonder how many manufacturing facilities we started up in 2020 because we found out that dependency. Not many, I would guess. And the Trump tariffs are designed (in part) to encourage more manufacturing here. But starting a plant today won’t magically make it happen tomorrow. Maybe in 12 month? 18 month? Three years? Who knows…

Maybe the EU should crank up some more weaponry plants. Maybe we should crank up a thousand other manufacturing facilities. I’m not seeing a lot of that. Not yet.

BTW, a huge part of our success in WWII was our ability to re-tool manufacturing toward the war effort. We don’t have enough of that today if we needed it. And not just weaponry, but anything and everything needed to conduct a war. Are we going to have to depend on China for MRE packaging material? (Just picking some random item there.)

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If nothing else, he’s slamming the trade issue on the table in a way that it cannot be ignored.

Politicians (from both sides) have been lamenting the trade imbalance and tariffs from other countries for decades. (I recently saw a youtube of pelosi making trump’s exact arguments back in 1996.) But nobody has dared to do anything about it.

Well, now here we are.

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Why are they bitching then? They should have started doing that 25 years or more ago.

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The EU does have more of a weapons production ability than a lot of people think.

Grok to the rescue for a comprehensive and balanced answer.

The European Union (EU) does make its own weapons, boasting a significant domestic defense industry that produces a wide range of military equipment, from small arms to advanced systems like fighter jets, tanks, and naval vessels. The EU’s 27 member states collectively host thousands of companies involved in weapons and ammunition manufacturing, with countries like Germany, France, and Italy leading the charge.

In 2020, Germany had 221 weapons and ammunition manufacturers, Italy had 157, and France had 122, contributing to a total of 1,804 such businesses across the EU-27. The market size of this industry was estimated at €23.6 billion in 2025, reflecting a robust—if somewhat fragmented—production capacity. Major players include companies like Airbus (multinational, with strong EU roots), Thales (France), Leonardo (Italy), and Rheinmetall (Germany), which produce everything from Eurofighter Typhoon jets and Leclerc tanks to artillery systems and missile technology like the MBDA’s Meteor air-to-air missile.

The EU’s domestic production covers a broad spectrum. For instance, France’s Nexter (now part of KNDS) manufactures the CAESAR self-propelled howitzer, widely used and exported, while Germany’s Krauss-Maffei Wegmann produces the Leopard 2 tank, a global benchmark. The EU also has initiatives to ramp up ammunition production, such as the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP), which allocated €500 million to boost output of 155mm artillery shells—capacity that grew from 300,000 rounds annually in early 2023 to 600,000–700,000 by late 2023, with a target of 1 million in 2024.

Despite this, the EU’s production isn’t fully self-sufficient. Intra-EU trade is limited, with only about 20% of defense purchases since 2022 coming from EU providers, and some “domestic” firms are subsidiaries of non-EU (often U.S.) companies. The European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS) and the €1.5 billion European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) for 2025–2027 aim to strengthen this capacity, addressing gaps exposed by recent demand spikes, particularly for Ukraine. Historically, military equipment spending in the EU has favored domestic producers, with imports typically under 10% of total expenditure in key countries, showing a strong “home bias.”

So, yes, the EU makes its own weapons—and a lot of them—but it still relies on imports, especially from the U.S., for certain advanced systems or urgent needs, while working to bolster its autonomy.

They have hundreds and hundreds of billions of American dollars through trade imbalance…and we make good weapons that have been proven. They can spend those hundreds and hundreds of billions buying our weapons to balance out that deficit.

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And if it that is what happens, Trump gets the credit but I am not sure the decision makers in European countries visit this sitez

Then tariff stays…and possibly even at higher rate.

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No, they aren’t anything of the sort.

The equation for Trumps’ reciprocal tariffs are this:

Rate = The greater of 0.10 or (0.5*(-Trade Deficit Value/Total Exports Value))

The other country’s actual effective tariff rates are nowhere to be found in this formula.

You really are a true believer in all things Trump :rofl::grinning:.

Personally I think to the degree there is any “plan”, it does hinge on the $9.2 T in debt that matures this year and has to be refinanced/reissued, and that this move is a way to knock yields down and also maybe force the Fed’s hand on interest rate cuts.

The fed is worried about inflation, but over time, these tariffs can actually have a deflationary effect.

Whatever his plans…to get interest rates down or to truly unwind from the current global system…I can’t see how either happens without a recession.

Especially if one believes the post-COVID growth is all just government stimulus-fueled and created a bubble.

Agreed. They are all higher than ours were.

I’m not European ass kisser if that’s what you’re saying.

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Not all of them, and many were very similar to ours.

None of them were even close to what the formula Trump used spit out for them.

Yes, all of them.

What happened to rice farming in this country? Why does the US import beef?

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There is no reason for Americans to be importing beef. No reason at all.

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Nor rice.

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