So are you saying that we are still approaching the top (not that we have passed it)?
Of growth? I thin the explosive growth of the post covid year is behind us, but donāt think weāre anywhere near ready for contraction. I think weāve got a year or more of modest growth ahead of us.
But what do I know.
Iām just not convinced job openings is a predictive metric.
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Well the BLS/Fed data on that goes back only a quarter century
(which is adequate but inconclusive for such things).
Still, it shows three down turns in job openings followed by three recessions.
There is a BUNCH of other data suggesting the same.
They all show a post-COVID bubble and/or a post COVID bust
(which is probably why the Fed is trying manage a soft downturn, to be sure there is not a uncontrolled downturn)
but they (the other data)
- are not always about jobs or illegal immigration (the thread topics), and
- some of them start late, some of them show signs of levelling. I like this indicator (for now) because it avoids discussion of such minutia.
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Decided to divide into two posts.
Forgive me for the flurry of charts to follow. I am not trying to be snide.
I am just demonstrating that in the signs of a post-COVID decline are everywhere.
Noticing all these, one hopes you will realize āNo duh job openings are in a tailspin. We are at the beginning of the bust that would naturally follow the post-COVID boom.ā
I will remind you I donāt blame Biden for it (much), but rather I think his polices and his words should be rejected even by mainstream liberals as inappropriate for the times we are in. Notice with each of these charts below in the past 25 years each of them have had exactly three substantial downturns. Every single time, even if they remained above zero, a recession followed.
Growth in actual jobs (not just openings)
Change in Full-time Jobs
Wage Growth (weighted)
Wage Growth (unweighted)
Nominal GDP Growth
Federal Tax Receipts
Hereās an economic reality regarding todayās economic situation:
A recent Harvard study found that half of the countryās renters are spending a third or more of their income on housing. Those are the people fortunate enough to find housing when thereās a nationwide shortage of affordable homes. Combine the rent line item with the soaring cost of child care, and donāt forget groceries, and ā¦ well, you can understand why evictions have spiked and homelessness has reached a record high.
Weāre living through an age of contradictions. The United States is the strongest economy in the world, and Americansā credit card debt has never been higher. The unemployment rate has been less than 5% for President Bidenās entire first term, and voters disapprove of his handling of the economy. Wall Street predicted that last yearās gross domestic product would grow by less than 2%, and instead it was 2.5% ā yet the economy feels weak to a lot of people. Thatās because for many people, the economy is weak.
Unfortunately it is not a ācontradiction.ā
What it is is āunsustainable.ā
The GDP measures spending (both by the free market and by government)
without regard to whether
- Families spend $30k and save $6k
- Families spend $30k and save nothing
- Families spend $30k and had to take-on $6k of new debt to do it.
Right now, 130 million persons who were born in the US have jobs in the US.
Good? Bad? well, it is the same number as in the summer of 2018.
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But wait!! what happened? I thought jobs are up. I thought the economy is strong.
Well, maybe, but since July 2018, 100% of all new jobs created in America went to persons born abroad.
Here are the two charts put together for easy reference.
I have a feeling Iāll be referring to this from time to time.
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Yeah, he brings up some very good points that I agree with.
I;m supported you are on board with the opinion piece though.
Did you read this part?
(I couldnāt copy and paste from the article. Had to screen shot.)
What is UE among native born americans?
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No they didnāt and your chart shows that they didnāt.
Itās 100 percent more jobs not 100 percent of all jobs.
The pretension though. Itās amazing
Your conclusions are astonishing
There are several valleys in your charts.
Some of them approached zero and there were no recessions during those valleys.
But go on.
Take charts. Ignore the post covid boom spike and the correction from it. Call it a downturn
Not much!!! 
If anybody takes 2 mins to compare the charts to the posts youāll see the reason for the laughing emoji
After 1979, Reagan convinced voters to make capital more important than people. Give the rich more, and the extra will ātrickle downā ā remember that? Greed is a part of capitalism . .
I certainly disagree with that part.
I certainly do to remember it.
I do remember terribly uneducated people making that false accusation.
Not taking away someoneās money (a tax cut)
is very very different than
āgiving money to the rich.ā
The rich are getting more and more and artificially low interest rates, (especially when they trigger inflation) is 100% at the core of it.
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The rich are getting more and more and artificially low interest rates, (especially when they trigger inflation) is 100% at the core of it.
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Imagine there is a middle-income family that make $30,000/year and spends it all.
For sake of ease, letās say they spend it on only two items, food, and an occasional AirBnB stay,)
And there is a better-off family that makes $60,000/year. They spend the same $30,000 but they invest the other $30,000 buying AirBnbs they rent-out.
Now I tell you
*"I am going to lower interest rates, making AirBnBās cheaper to buy, *
but slowly, over ten years, I am going to enact a 20% consumption tax, making your food and your AirBnB stays 20% more expensive. Thatās right I am going to take-away 20% of everything the middle-income family gets, but only 10% of what the upper-income family gets."
Pretty evil right? Pretty disgusting, right?
Well guess what? A 20% consumption tax is exactly what happens when inflation is 2% ten years in a row.
Ever feel like things are slowly getting worse for the middle class but slowly getting better for the upper class? Remember this.
Isnāt a 3 percent annual interest rate on borrowing higher than a 2 percent annual growth in inflation?
Neither BLS nor the Fed break it down that way.
The monthly Employment Situation Report, which comes out from the BLS first Fri. of every month consists of two surveys, one of employer one of families. It provides a lot of detailed information, including overall unemployment rate, but does not break it down in the manner you have requested.
What is the wage effect of a massive increase in labor supply?
It works the same as it would for cars.
Flood the market with cheap imports of cars or labor and either way,
ā we donāt necessarily know how many of those things go unsold, but we know the cost of those things goes down and does not keep pace with inflation.
Yes, I read all of it. The facts are what they are, I donāt agree with those conclusions though - itās ALL Ronald Reaganās fault! Iāve said this before and Iāll say this over and over again, the two biggest culprits are globalization and technology. Hereās the thing, you guys on the Left all want to ā ā ā ā on Ronald Reagan as though every negative thing is his fault. But does that not presuppose that the great Jimmy Carter had the country living in some sort of utopia? Furthermore, if Reagan was so bad then why did he win reelection in one of the greatest landslides ever? I would also say that cost of living is the third biggest issue, which is the result of various economic factors that no one single person can magically control.
They certainly are an issue. Other countries donāt have the income disparity that we do though, even though they also struggle with these two issues.
I donāt think everything negative was Reaganās fault
I do think his work to weaken unions and slash the taxes for the wealthy led to an accelation of the wage gap and consolidation of wealth at the top.
Why would it?
You canāt have two bad presidents in a row?
Or, more accurately, you canāt have two presidents who were good and bad at various things?
Lol.
Obama won two terms.
Clinton won two terms.
Bush won two terms.
Does that mean they were great presidents?
Cost of living is an issue because middle and lower income wages donāt rise as fast as upper income wages. A large reason for that is the policies started during the Reagan revolution.
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Not all of itā¦but a lot of it.
Reagan hurt unions when he sought, and got support from some of them, then burned them.
His admin put stock buy backs back in play for corps to manipulate their stock to their advantage.
Cut taxes on the rich/corpsā¦started taxing Social Security to help make up the difference.
Stopped enforcing the Anti-trust laws, creating the monopolies today.
Started the process of outsourcing manufacturing overseas.
Rand Corp put out a study showing the shift in wealth. The Reagan revolution is the biggest factor that affected the economy. We went from Keynesian economics to Friedman economicsā¦
And here we areā¦
Edited to addā¦(I posted this before I read TNTās post)
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