Well, in fairness, I don’t actually see the same chart pattern everywhere
Despite
declining job openings,
declining jobs growth,
declining gdp growth
Federal spending is not declining. The pattern is broken.
Federal spending remains higher than the Trump level,
higher than most of the Obama level.
And basically is at the bailout mania GFC levels.
(I guess as long as we don’t call it a bailout then it’s okay, right?)
Why is it alarming that in an economy with full employment, there are fewer job openings?
That’s to be expected.
How about just the policies of the black arrow?
That’s not a pun 
That explains the spike
What explains the steady decade long growth preceding the spike.
Worst recovery ever?
The thing about charts is you can always find one to fit your narrative.
Alarming?
I’m not sure that’s the right word anyway.
What you are describing however also describes:
“We are in the tip of a boom-bust cycle and neither part was caused by Joe Biden.”
The Fed over did it, that caused a boom, The Fed is trying to claw-back what it did, in an effort to make sure the bust is gentle and controlled, not some uncontrollable free fall.
You are pointing to job openings as an indicator of a pending bust.
But given we are at full employment, doesn’t it make sense there are few job openings?
I’m not sure I accept the word choice, but I get your drift and yes,
job openings decline everytime the economy declines from a peak.
In fact a chart like this one says “Looks like the economy hit some kind of peak and a decline has begun.”
well libs…if economy is doing so good why is James Carville telling democrats to stop telling voters how great the economy is…because people aren’t felling it.
I’m not being clear enough in my question to you - yes, that is a graph of job openings, and the graph is now going down.
Why would that indicate bad news for the economy?
I would expect job openings to decrease as we approach and reach full employment.
Additionally, you graph indicates there are more job openings today than there was pre-pandemic. Doesn’t that mean the economy is larger today than then, with more jobs and more work and more production?
It indicates we are declining off a peak.
I am not saying we are at a bottom (yet)
I am not even saying it is bad (yet).
I am saying we are in decline. we are on a downward trajectory
Whatever you felt last year (most likely the economy is good, but inflation is kinda high) was as good as it’s gonna get for a while.
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I sometimes feel as though no matter what I write people (libs) here always try to read into it “Gaius is saying we are at the bottom of a depression and it is all Joe Biden’s fault. How laughably wrong of him.”
(Hopefully that does not include you.)
Let me restate what I have stated several times before including on this thread.
It would be terribly terribly wrong for someone to say “See that uptrend, that is because of Joe Biden policies. And that down trend at the end? It doesn’t exist at all.”
and
Thing 1)
I grow corn. I eat a lot of corn because I grow a lot of corn.Thing 2)
My fields are much less productive. I cannot even grow enough corn to feed my family. I am feeding my family, for now, only because a while ago someone dropped off a truckload of corn. I am eating the dropped-off corn. My fields don’t grow enough corn to feed my family.Thing 1 is not Thing 2
And I am asking why you feel that way.
I’m failing to see the correlation between a decrease in job openings and the beginning of a slow down.
Not at all - I’m asking why this metric leads you to the conclusion you posted.
Slowing job openings during a time of rising GDP makes sense to me.
There is this.
(looks kinda downish there at the end)
The main reason I see it coming is because of monetary policy.
What we experienced last year was an unsustainable peak.
Now the Fed wants to engineer a soft-landing
because the alternative is an uncontrolled crash-landing.
Either way, we are past the peak, the next direction is down.
The Fed, and I, and most of mainstream economics are all on the same page here.
Unemployment tends to rise quickly once it bottoms.
Bears like myself sometimes forget to applaud how low unemployment is before shouting “Look out! It’s gonna get bad.”
But yeah, that’s what happens.
OK. That makes more sense.
I just don’t see how job openings is a meaningful indicator of anything to come.
I’ve said this numerous times, and I’ll say it again, our economy is the result of our capitalist system (as imperfect as it is), our companies (amongst the greatest in the world) and businesses, along with the business leaders and entrepreneurs who run them, and the US workers.
Now the concerning part is that an aspect of the economy has been the result of deficit spending, especially what we have seen around the early 2000’s. I’ve said this before, how truly strong an economy that has incessant deficit spending? Furthermore, this concern is talked about by our Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The other thing I find concerning is the health of the consumer who is drowing in credit card debt and drawing down savings.
Well when the economy is soaring there are more job openings and vice versa
All sorts of things can be used to track (or predict) the economy.
(Like changes in wealth disparity
Presumably there is a reason bls.gov tracks job openings, and a reason the Fed thinks they are so important they republish the data on their website (where I got it.)
I know a guy whose entire sales team (medical sales of some sort) got canned. He thought this chart, also one the Fed makes available was a good indicator of whether he, and many like him, can get a job in the near future:
Oh and here is some supportive evidence
I don’t wish to derail my own thread but umm
the sharp drop in job openings is an economic indicator,
here is another piece of (non-job) supporting evidence that supports the same indication.
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Not when you are at full employment.
