Good News! January jobs report: New US jobs slightly exceed number of encounters with illegals at Southern border

Does the term “will-o-wisp” mean anything to you?
Perhaps, “siren” (of Ulysses fame.)

You see, they say every poker player has a tell.
In theory, if you can learn to read faces, you can tell if a man is bluffing or telling the truth.

Every economy certainly does, and it is not at all hard to learn to read an economy.
This is the tell.

It isn’t real, It’s a mirage.
The economy did not really get that much better.

It’s a mirage.
It’s fake.
It’s phony.
Itis unsustainable,
and it is certainly not Joe Biden’s doing (good or bad.)
The massive amount of job openings i not some “return to normal after COVID”
Nor did Joe Biden policies unleash that tidal wave of job openings.

That is a sudden spike more obvious than tulip prices or South Seas stock

It is a temporary illusion created by tons and tons of Fed helicopter money,
and the mirage is already disappearing rapidly, like a will-o-wisp always does.

The question is:
Will we allow it to deceive us? and lead us deep into the marshy bog where, like in literature of old we get stuck in the mire and meet our doom?

Don’t be fooled by it. You’re smarter than that.

“. . . like a will-o’-the-wisp, tease him deeper and deeper into the forest until he is lost and doomed. . . . Like a Venus flytrap that says I am a delicious flower come taste me and then snap! Devour.”
— Laini Taylor

9 months left. :joy:

The same economic indicators with the same government cheese were scaled an economic boom. Just a few years ago.

Now it’s all fake and propped up.

See the thing is, is that it falls somewhere in the middle.

But after 6 years of “worst recover every” followed by the greatest economy ever with the same exact economic indicators and government cheese it’s hard to take the concerns seriously

Just like trolls everywhere

1.) Cannot refute an argument (failed failed failed)

  1. Make up something I never said or did

  2. Pretend I said or did it

You replied to me with your conversation with an imaginary person in which you don’t actually make an argument other than and this is an exact quote “sure look this way and the economy is in decline”. That sure is hard to refute :joy:

See the thing is you keep calling me a troll but the truth is that any in depth look into your “analysis” shows that it’s primarily emotion.

Again
not discussing the topic
not discussing the topic
not discussing the topic
not discussing the topic

Again making up false allegations about the person
“Boo Hoo he never said this X number of years ago.”

Again following a person around from thread-to-thread posting the above everywhere you see me.

What’s your definition of “troll”?

This wasn’t about you singular. It was about you collective.

While i do address your positions not everything is about you :blush:

Bye-bye

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Exactly, how good is an economy that has to deficit spend year after year after year?

Actually you know what i apologize. I am going to abstain from your threads for a bit so as not to bug :blush:.

The debt is a big part of the problem,
But the illusion, the will-o-wisp comes mostly from whether the Fed decides to “monetize” the debt.

As I have said many times, I don’t blame Biden (much) for the problem (the illusion) that is clear to anyone who is looking hard enough. I blame him for pretending/spending like this is some sort of permanent thing.

The surge in job openings was well underway before Joe Biden even took office,
(red line below.)

And the decline was well under way before his first major piece of economic legislation (the infrastructure bill) became law, Nov 2021 (green line below.)

Whatever is going on, it was not caused by Biden’s economic initiatives.
Those began at the green line

Then we have the consumer:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/personalfinance/credit-card-debt-hits-a-staggering-1-13-trillion-here-s-why-so-many-americans-are-under-pressure/ar-BB1hS8od?ocid=msedgntp&pc=LCTS&cvid=727d4bac879644eea97126a29734cc6a&ei=16

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Here is the job openings chart from above

And here is a similar (different start date) chart tracking nominal wages growth

.

Not surprisingly they are similar
Both of them have a “tell.”
In both cases, something very unusual bean happening ~8 mos before Joe Biden was elected.
In each case it stopped happening, and began to reverse, several months before his first major piece of economic legislation became law.

I don’t blame Joe Biden (much) for the decline that began he enacted any legislation.
But I do poo-poo the people (including President Biden) who are in denial that it is happening.

So we’re getting back to pre covid?

At the risk of over-simplifying: Yes

So we’re slowly getting back to the greatest economy we’ve ever had? I know you’re not a MAGA/Trump guy, but is this what you’re saying. That covid got wierd and job openings are now getting close to where they were?

The point(s) I am hoping to make here have todo with the orange arrow and the red arrow below. A lot of mischief can be caused if say, Joe Biden, or Democrats generally said:
“Look at that orange arrow. That was caused by my polices. My policies must continue! Oh and that red arrow does not exist at all, except in the minds of MAGA trailer trash and Walmart gun clingers.”
:point_up_2:I really hope they don’t say that. That would be wrong and dangerous. :point_up_2:

.
.
.
But that’s not what you asked about.
You asked about the Trump presidency.
Well, the Trump Presidency is the black box above.
Pretty much self-explanatory, no?
What the heck explains the green arrow?

Note:
I don’t always use “Job Openings Non-farm” as a stand-in to represent the economy, but in this case, it illustrates the point I am trying to make pretty well.

How much of these job openings were a result of people being locked in their homes for months and then their response (arguably overreaction) to the new found freedom after being set free!

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I don’t know.

What I know

  1. Job openings is an economic indicator
  2. It is the one that best illustrates my “thesis” on the economy.
  3. Other indicators, such as actual jobs, or nominal GDP growth also illustrate what I am saying.

Heck if you look at enough charts you begin to see the same general pattern everywhere.


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.
.
It would be terribly terribly wrong for someone to say “See that uptrend, that is because of Joe Biden policies. And that down trend at the end? It doesn’t exist at all.”

I sure hope no one uses that crazy argument.
A person who does that, does not belong in public office at all.

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