What was he referring to?
It’s weather, it’s not climate. It’s nothing.
Climate change’s fingerprints are on U.S. Midwest floods: scientists
Climate change played a hand in the deadly floods in the U.S. upper Midwest that have damaged crops and drowned livestock, scientists said on Thursday, while a Trump administration official said more homework was needed before making that link.
Science doesn’t care who’s a denier or not, or what internet sites you visit, what you think Al Gore is up to, or if there’s a new green deal–or not. Scientists, like anybody else, also make mistakes. Over time the mistakes are ironed out by the process. But the process is all we have and it has proven to be the most important process of the modern world. There is nothing special about a “climate” scientist that distinguishes them from any other kind of scientist. It’s all done the same way. One of the worst avenues for discourse are predictions. They come in various sizes. The most obvious and commonplace predictions are simply a means to test the validity of certain hypotheses. Like the prediction of general relativity that light bends in the presence of massive objects.
If somebody predicts that the world will end in 12 years, that is not a prediction in the scientific sense of the word. It’s OK to say it or even believe it, but it is not science. That global warming might result in a certain amount of sea level rise in the next century also is a prediction, but not in the scientific sense. It’s simply an outcome of the best data used to model future trends. Think of it as a forecast using the best data we have at the moment.
By the way, this also includes social science, like psychology or anthropology. But here the variables are more intricate and more difficult to control. One of the most important contributions of psychology over the past few decades is the understanding of how we make judgments and the biases that all of us are susceptible to. One of Michael Lewis’ new books (author of Moneyball, The Blind Side, The Big Short, etc.) was about two such psychologists, called “The Undoing Project.” I recommend it.
2 Likes
Just to follow up, words matter in science. The word “prediction” is one of the words that needs to be treated carefully, not casually. That also goes for the word “theory,” which is perhaps the most mistreated word of all. I’ve heard people say that evolution is only a “theory.” Well, the quantum theory of the atom is also a “theory.” But tell the mutated descendants of the atomic bomb attack on Hiroshima and Nagasaki that it’s all just a theory.
1 Like
That’s not what it said. I mean the report is public.
Say what?
The 12 years portion I highlighted is a reference to the IPCC report , no?
I thought that was something AOC said. I haven’t read the new IPCC report. Does it say the world will end in 12 years? I bet not, but if you want to go there, let’s go there.
Nah, AOC was not just pulling some ■■■■■■■■ out of her ass.
No, it did not say that the world will end in twelve years. It said that we have 12 years to keep global warming to 1.5 C.
Fair enough. That’s a prediction of the forecast sort, but not of the classic predictions of science based on laws of nature. I’m not going to argue whether that will come true or not. It might be realistic, or it may not come to pass exactly as predicted. But I believe they are in possession of the best information that is currently available.
So what’s your point?
You know, the classics.
Good call.
That the IPCC report did not say the world will end in 12 years.
Got what you’re saying. OK.
By the way–just to be political for the moment–I’m as liberal as they get. I was raised in a liberal family. My mother was for a brief time a member of the communist party–before she worked with the heart surgeon, Dr. Michael DeBakey in Texas. She became an orthopedic surgeon in the 1940s, as was my father.
My entire family are physicians, except for me, a lowly anthropologist and now science teacher. But I do have my doctorate, so at least I have a higher degree than the rest of my family . . . or so I say in defense of myself.
And this is the first time in history Nebraska has flooded?
You’re clearly on top of it, WR. Tell us how you really feel.
How about addressing the question?
I didn’t realize that a doctorate in anthropology was a higher degree than a doctorate in medicine. Thanks for clarifying that. I was under the impression one needed a doctorate in anthropology to sweep floors in a museum. 
Indeed. I’m pretty good at sweeping floors, or so says my wife!
Depending on the state most medical degrees are the equivalent of a BS or MS.
Unsure what that means, WR, I have a great respect for my mother, my father, and my two brothers and my sister in medicine. They are, respectively, an orthopedic surgeon, an orthopedic surgeon, a psychiatrist, a pediatrician, and an internist. Tell me, what is your point?
