Well I hate to go against Moody’s. New York seems low and Atlanta seems high and I don’t like either of them because they’re normally way off. I’ll go with close to Moody’s but I still think it’s a little high. 3.8% is my prediction.
In normal times GDP would increase during a trade war. There would be a lag time but it would be effected.
Now we are not living in normal times so it will be interesting to see what happens. The economy is still strong enough to support even the larger tariff’s that are being bantered about. But if we go another quarter or two still doing battle with China, et.al. things might be much worse fast. And then the GDP might suffer bigly.
I also predict that conservatives will declare “Mission Accomplished” on a new era of prosperity–ignoring that GDP growth was 2% in Q1 and that we had a few quarters in the Obama years when GDP growth topped 4%.
I’m gonna go with 3.2%, followed by several posters who will proclaim that Obama never got to 3%. This will be proven false, and said posters will then proclaim that the Fed dollars propped up Obama.