4.6 is the number fellas.
That prediction doesn’t look natural. I say
2.718281828459
Interesting article about the Atlanta Fed prediction:
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Higher than even the Atlanta Fed predicted? When has that ever happened? Or do you believe this will be the first time?
Really good article. Thanks for sharing this. I agree with their general assessment as well. There have been more negative impact points than positive to have been released over the last 6 weeks or so.
I agree with the general sentiment of the article, though I’m curious what they’re using for their historical quarterly data. It claims you have to go back to 2000Q2 to get 4.5+ growth, but that happened in 2014Q3, 2014Q2, and 2011Q4 at 5.2, 4.6 and 4.6 respectively. There were also 14 quarters from 2009-2017 that were at or above 2.7 rather than the five the article states.
From the article they reference an annualized rate, not individual quarters exceeding 4.5%.
How big is a 4.5% seasonally adjusted annual GDP growth rate? This is a huge number for the US. The last time the US economy grew at a 4.5% annual rate was…. Well, we have to dig deep into history… let’s see, back in the day… the Clinton era… in Q2 2000 (5.2%):
Unless I’m not fully understanding, which is a possibility always. 
But I’m using the seasonally adjusted annual rates straight from the BEA [1]. Even when I bring up St. Louis Fed’s graph [2], I don’t get the same numbers as the article (that’s what the image citation points to).
The quarterly numbers are always at seasonally adjusted annual rates if I’m not mistaken.
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It’s in between the correction in the market and any realized impact from tariffs. It may ultimately be an outlier for the year, if we do suffer any inflation due to tariffs. But even that can be stemmed with lower fuel prices, so the jury’s still out there. Overall, I think economists are underestimating this quarter.
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Nah. Obama had quarters that were high
Allan
Anything less than Obama’s highest quarterly rate will be complete and utter failure. A total repudiation of the economic disaster that is Trumpism.
Furthermore: Labor participation rate.
Watergate.
And Iran/contra.
Venezuela.
Trump just can’t help himself. He already started blabbing about the numbers. What a maroon.
Anywhooooo, you’re right. I can’t help but think that Trump ended on the actual number that will be released tomorrow.
“Somebody actually predicted today, 5.3 [percent GDP growth] – I don’t think that’s going to happen,” Trump said. “If it has a 4 in front of it, we’re gonna be happy. If it has a 3-- 3.8, 3.9, 3.7, we’re OK.”
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Good grief…he really cannot help himself, can he? And yeah, there is a high probability that this is the case. Tomorrow will be interesting.
I’m kind of surprised he didn’t say something along the lines of “It’s going to be yuuuuuge - best number ever. No one can get the economy going like Trump …”
It’s because he has already been given the number. The data is released to the White House 24 hours in advance. He knows what the number is right now.
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Prepare to be not surprised. He did say that. I just didn’t quote it.
“Big numbers announced tomorrow; I don’t know what they are, but I think they’re going to be terrific.”
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long gone is the precedent that no one talk about the numbers before it is released, hell Kudlow is even getting on it.
another norm that is destroyed, another norm that would have had the entire CEC and conservatives have stroke had it been done during the last admin
What is it with these people? And Kudlow, he knows better than this. This has tremendous impact on global financial markets. Are they also gaming the system and notifying people who could stand to profit off of the early notifications? There needs to be an immediate check on these buffoons.
My thinks you’re a bit low. But I admit this is not my strong spot. Main thing is the trajectory is the best it has been for a loooong time. It’s that pesky Laffer Curve in action. As long long predicted. It just took us this long to get a man in awfice to implement it. (As a bonus Trump clipped the EPA’s massive stinger too. DEregulation.)
Trajectory is muy importante. The good news builds on itself. Growth is explosive and exponential as time goes by…
